Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach
| Autor: | Barbara Entwisle, Xiaozheng Yao, Pramote Prasartkul, Aree Jampaklay, Brian G. Frizzelle, Stephen J. Walsh, Yothin Sawangdee, Benjamin W. Heumann, Nathalie E. Williams, George P. Malanson, Ashton M. Verdery, Philip McDaniel, Ronald R. Rindfuss, Peter J. Mucha |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
Agent-based model
Wet weather 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Land use business.industry Ecology 05 social sciences 0507 social and economic geography Climate change Environmental Science (miscellaneous) 01 natural sciences Article Variable (computer science) Agriculture Climatology Environmental science business 050703 geography 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Demography |
| DOI: | 10.17615/kr1s-t854 |
| Popis: | This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: 1) a reference, 'normal' scenario; 2) seven years of unusually wet weather; 3) seven years of unusually dry weather; and 4) seven years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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