Escape from model-land
| Autor: | Leonard A. Smith, Erica Thompson |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
Decision support system
model evaluation 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Dynamical systems theory Operations research Computer science Modelling and simulation 0208 environmental biotechnology Social Sciences radical uncertainty 02 engineering and technology 01 natural sciences Task (project management) Mathematical modelling and simulation d81 C52 ddc:330 d8 C6 QA Mathematics Uncertainty quantification C53 uncertainty HB71-74 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Estimation HB Economic Theory radical decision-making dynamical systems structural model error 020801 environmental engineering D81 c52 Economics as a science modelling and simulation D8 c6 Imperfect General Economics Econometrics and Finance c53 |
| Zdroj: | Economics : the Open-Access, Open-Assessment e-Journal (2019) Economics : the Open-Access, Open-Assessment e-Journal, Vol 13, Iss 1 (2019) |
| Popis: | Both mathematical modelling and simulation methods in general have contributed greatly to understanding, insight and forecasting in many fields including macroeconomics. Nevertheless, we must remain careful to distinguish model-land and model-land quantities from the real world. Decisions taken in the real world are more robust when informed by estimation of real-world quantities with transparent uncertainty quantification, than when based on “optimal” model-land quantities obtained from simulations of imperfect models optimized, perhaps optimal, in model-land. The authors present a short guide to some of the temptations and pitfalls of model-land, some directions towards the exit, and two ways to escape. Their aim is to improve decision support by providing relevant, adequate information regarding the real-world target of interest, or making it clear why today’s model models are not up to that task for the particular target of interest. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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