Integration of Boosted Regression Trees and Cellular Automata—Markov Model to Predict the Land Use Spatial Pattern in Hotan Oasis
| Autor: | Honghui Sang, Mohamed Khaled Salahou, Liudong Zhang, Shufang Wang, Aimin Gong, Liping Wang, Xiyun Jiao |
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| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
land use change
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Ecological health lcsh:TJ807-830 0208 environmental biotechnology Geography Planning and Development lcsh:Renewable energy sources boosted regression trees 02 engineering and technology Agricultural engineering Management Monitoring Policy and Law Markov model 01 natural sciences Physics::Geophysics Land use land-use change and forestry lcsh:Environmental sciences 0105 earth and related environmental sciences lcsh:GE1-350 Driving factors Land use Renewable Energy Sustainability and the Environment lcsh:Environmental effects of industries and plants CA-Markov model Nonlinear Sciences::Cellular Automata and Lattice Gases Regression 020801 environmental engineering Water resources lcsh:TD194-195 Hotan Oasis Environmental science Utilization rate Computer Science::Formal Languages and Automata Theory |
| Zdroj: | Sustainability Volume 12 Issue 4 Sustainability, Vol 12, Iss 4, p 1396 (2020) |
| ISSN: | 2071-1050 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/su12041396 |
| Popis: | The simulation and prediction of the land use changes is generally carried out by cellular automata&mdash Markov (CA-Markov) model, and the generation of suitable maps collection is subjective in the simulation process. In this study, the CA-Markov model was improved by the Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) to simulate land use to make the model objectively. The weight of ten driving factors of the land use changes was analyzed in BRT, in order to produce the suitable maps collection. The accuracy of the model was verified. The outcomes represent a match of over 84% between simulated and actual land use in 2015, and the Kappa coefficient was 0.89, which was satisfactory to approve the calibration process. The land use of Hotan Oasis in 2025 and 2035 were predicted by means of this hybrid model. The area of farmland, built-up land and water body in Hotan Oasis showed an increasing trend, while the area of forestland, grassland and unused land continued to show a decreasing trend in 2025 and 2035. The government needs to formulate measures to improve the utilization rate of water resources to meet the growth of farmland, and need to increase ecological environment protection measures to curb the reduction of grass land and forest land for the ecological health. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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