The impact of population growth and climate change on food security in Africa: looking ahead to 2050
| Autor: | Terry Dawson, Pete Smith, Jennie I. Macdiarmid, Charlotte Hall, Robin Matthews |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
Economics and Econometrics
Economic growth Food security 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Natural resource economics Yield gap Climate change 010501 environmental sciences 01 natural sciences Sustainable agriculture Food systems Population growth Business Agronomy and Crop Science 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Hall, C, Dawson, T P, Macdiarmid, J I, Matthews, R B & Smith, P 2017, ' The Impact of Population Growth and Climate Change on Food Security in Africa; Looking Ahead to 2050 ', International journal of agricultural sustainability . https://doi.org/10.1080/14735903.2017.1293929 |
| ISSN: | 1747-762X 1473-5903 |
| DOI: | 10.1080/14735903.2017.1293929 |
| Popis: | Providing nutritious and environmentally sustainable food to all people at all times is one of the greatest challenges currently facing society. This problem is particularly acute in Africa where an estimated one in four people still lack adequate food to sustain an active and healthy life. In this study, we consider the potential impact of future population growth and climate change on food security in Africa, looking ahead to 2050. A modelling framework termed FEEDME (Food Estimation and Export for Diet and Malnutrition Evaluation) was used which was characterized to model the impacts of future climate changes (utilizing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios projections) and projected population growth on food availability and subsequent undernourishment prevalence in 44 African countries. Our results indicate that projected rapid population growth will be the leading cause of food insecurity and widespread undernourishment across Africa. Very little to no difference in undernourishment projections were found when we examined future scenarios with and without the effects of climate change, suggesting population growth is the dominant driver of change. Various adaptation options are discussed, such as closing the yield gap via sustainable intensification and increasing imports through trade and aid agreements. These strategies are likely to be critical in preventing catastrophic future food insecurity. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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