Are the gambler's fallacy or the hot-hand fallacy due to an erroneous probability estimate?
| Autor: | Olimpia Matarazzo, Claudia Greco, Barbara Pizzini, Michele Carpentieri |
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| Přispěvatelé: | AA.VV., A. Esposito, M. Faudez-Zanuy, F. Morabito, E. Pasero, Matarazzo, Olimpia, Carpentieri, Michele, Greco, Claudia, Pizzini, Barbara |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Multidisciplinary Approaches to Neural Computing ISBN: 9783319569031 Multidisciplinary Approaches to Neural Computing |
| Popis: | Through two experiments we investigated, in a laboratory setting, whether a series of identical outcomes in a supposed random game would induce the gamblerâs fallacy or the hot-hand fallacy. By using two indices of fallacy, the choice of a card on which to bet and the probability estimate of the occurrence of a given outcome, we tested explicitly the widely accepted hypothesis that the two fallacies were based on erroneous probability estimates. Moreover, we investigated whether fallacies increase the proneness to bet. Our results support the occurrence of the gamblerâs fallacy rather than the hot-hand fallacy but suggest that choice and probability estimates are two reciprocally independent processes. Finally, probability estimates predict the amount bet. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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