Sustaining effective COVID-19 control in Malaysia through large-scale vaccination
| Autor: | Michael T. Meehan, Izzuna Mudla Mohamed Ghazali, Xuan Le, Emma S. McBryde, Kian Boon Law, Romain Ragonnet, James M. Trauer, Sit Wai Lee, Kalaiarasu M. Peariasamy, Ku Nurhasni Ku Abd Rahim, Pavithra Jayasundara, Karina Razali, Zhuo Lin Chong, Milinda Abayawardana, Rukun K.S. Khalaf, Jamie M. Caldwell, Linh-Vi Le |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Geographic mobility
medicine.medical_specialty Occupancy Epidemiology Psychological intervention VoC variants of concern Infectious and parasitic diseases RC109-216 variants of concern Microbiology intensive care unit Article Herd immunity Virology Environmental health medicine Humans mathematical modelling non-pharmaceutical interventions Government NPI non-pharmaceutical interventions SARS-CoV-2 Public health movement control order VOC Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health Malaysia COVID-19 vaccination MCO movement control order ICU intensive care unit Vaccination Infectious Diseases Geography MCO Scale (social sciences) ICU Parasitology Epidemiological Models |
| Zdroj: | Epidemics, Vol 37, Iss, Pp 100517-(2021) Epidemics |
| Popis: | IntroductionAs of 3rdJune 2021, Malaysia is experiencing a resurgence of COVID-19 cases. In response, the federal government has implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) under a series of Movement Control Orders and, more recently, a vaccination campaign to regain epidemic control. In this study, we assessed the potential for the vaccination campaign to control the epidemic in Malaysia and four high-burden regions of interest, under various public health response scenarios.MethodsA modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental model was developed that included two sequential incubation and infectious periods, with stratification by clinical state. The model was further stratified by age and incorporated population mobility to capture NPIs and micro-distancing (behaviour changes not captured through population mobility). Emerging variants of concern (VoC) were included as an additional strain competing with the existing wild-type strain. Several scenarios that included different vaccination strategies (i.e. vaccines that reduce disease severity and/or prevent infection, vaccination coverage) and mobility restrictions were implemented.ResultsThe national model and the regional models all fit well to notification data but underestimated ICU occupancy and deaths in recent weeks, which may be attributable to increased severity of VoC or saturation of case detection. However, the true case detection proportion showed wide credible intervals, highlighting incomplete understanding of the true epidemic size. The scenario projections suggested that under current vaccination rates complete relaxation of all NPIs would trigger a major epidemic. The results emphasise the importance of micro-distancing, maintaining mobility restrictions during vaccination roll-out and accelerating the pace of vaccination for future control. Malaysia is particularly susceptible to a major COVID-19 resurgence resulting from its limited population immunity due to the country’s historical success in maintaining control throughout much of 2020. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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