The heterogeneous impact of monetary policy on the US labor market
| Autor: | Gregor Zens, Maximilian Böck, Thomas O. Zörner |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Economics and Econometrics
Labour economics Control and Optimization 502025 Ökonometrie media_common.quotation_subject 502047 Volkswirtschaftstheorie Context (language use) Monetary policy Job polarization Jobless recoveries Occupation-level FAVAR Vector autoregression Globalization 0502 economics and business Economics 050207 economics media_common 050208 finance 502018 Macroeconomics Applied Mathematics 05 social sciences Monetary policy 502018 Makroökonomie 101026 Time series analysis Interest rate Shock (economics) 101026 Zeitreihenanalyse Unemployment 502025 Econometrics 502047 Economic theory Survey data collection JEL C11 C32 E24 E52 |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 119:103989 |
| ISSN: | 0165-1889 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jedc.2020.103989 |
| Popis: | We empirically investigate the role of central banks in the context of heterogeneous labor markets, jobless recoveries and job polarization. Specifically, we estimate the effect of monetary policy on the US labor market using disaggregated time series based on large scale survey data. The impact of interest rate changes on unemployment in 32 occupation groups is explored in a Bayesian factor-augmented vector autoregression framework. The results suggest largely heterogeneous impacts across various occupation groups. This heterogeneity can be explained by differential task profiles of the workers in their respective occupations. Workers with tasks that are easily automated or offshored as well as workers at the bottom of the skill distribution are disproportionately affected following a monetary policy shock. This implies that labor market participants that are highly vulnerable to structural developments such as skill-biased technological change and the globalization of labor markets are also most sensitive to conventional monetary policy measures. From a policy perspective, we conclude that central banks are unlikely to be able to take on a stabilizing role in the context of labor market polarization. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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