Environmental Correlates of Lyme Disease Emergence in Southwest Virginia, 2005–2014
| Autor: | Ali Arab, Paul M. Lantos, Mark Janko, Vance G. Fowler, Jennifer J. Swenson, Michael E. von Fricken, James Broyhill, Jean I. Tsao, Lise E. Nigrovic, Paul G. Auwaerter, David N. Gaines, Felicia Ruffin |
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| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Range (biology)
030231 tropical medicine Disease Environment Biology Communicable Diseases Emerging 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Lyme disease Abundance (ecology) medicine Humans Retrospective Studies Lyme Disease 0303 health sciences General Veterinary 030306 microbiology Ecology Transmission (medicine) Virginia Vegetation Census bacterial infections and mycoses Modeling/GIS Risk Assessment Economic Impact Block (meteorology) medicine.disease Cross-Sectional Studies Infectious Diseases Insect Science Parasitology |
| Zdroj: | J Med Entomol |
| ISSN: | 1938-2928 0022-2585 |
| DOI: | 10.1093/jme/tjab038 |
| Popis: | Lyme disease is the most common tick-borne disease in North America. Though human infection is mostly transmitted in a limited geography, the range has expanded in recent years. One notable area of recent expansion is in the mountainous region of southwestern Virginia. The ecological factors that facilitate or constrain the range of human Lyme disease in this region remain uncertain. To evaluate this further, we obtained ecological data, including remotely sensed data on forest structure and vegetation, weather data, and elevation. These data were aggregated within the census block groups of a 9,153 km2 area around the cities of Blacksburg and Roanoke, VA, an area with heterogeneous Lyme disease transmission. In this geographic area, 755 individuals were reported to have Lyme disease in the 10 yr from 2006 to 2015, and these cases were aggregated by block group. A zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to evaluate which environmental variables influenced the abundance of Lyme disease cases. Higher elevation and higher vegetation density had the greatest effect size on the abundance of Lyme disease. Measures of forest edge, forest integrity, temperature, and humidity were not associated with Lyme disease cases. Future southward expansion of Lyme disease into the southeastern states may be most likely in ecologically similar mountainous areas. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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