Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability
| Autor: | Tamsin L. Edwards, Catherine Ritz, Antony J. Payne, Mark A. Brandon, Nicholas R. Golledge, Gaël Durand, Isabel Nias, Neil R. Edwards, Andreas Wernecke, Philip B. Holden |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019]), Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG ), Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019]), Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE), Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), EDGe, Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
geography
Multidisciplinary geography.geographical_feature_category 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Global warming 010502 geochemistry & geophysics 01 natural sciences Instability Ice shelf 13. Climate action Climatology Greenhouse gas Interglacial Cliff Geology ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Edwards, T L, Brandon, M, Durand, G, Edwards, N, Golledge, N R, Holden, P, Nias, I, Payne, A J, Ritz, C & Wernecke, A 2019, ' Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability ', Nature, vol. 566, pp. 58-64 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0901-4 Nature Nature, Nature Publishing Group, 2019, 566 (7742), pp.58-64. ⟨10.1038/s41586-019-0901-4⟩ Edwards, T L, Brandon, M A, Durand, G, Edwards, N R, Golledge, N R, Holden, P B, Nias, I J, Payne, A J, Ritz, C & Wernecke, A 2019, ' Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice-cliff instability ', Nature, vol. 566, pp. 58-64 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0901-4 |
| ISSN: | 0028-0836 1476-4679 |
| Popis: | Predictions for sea-level rise this century due to melt from Antarctica range from zero to more than one metre. The highest predictions are driven by the controversial marine ice-cliff instability (MICI) hypothesis, which assumes that coastal ice cliffs can rapidly collapse after ice shelves disintegrate, as a result of surface and sub-shelf melting caused by global warming. But MICI has not been observed in the modern era and it remains unclear whether it is required to reproduce sea-level variations in the geological past. Here we quantify ice-sheet modelling uncertainties for the original MICI study and show that the probability distributions are skewed towards lower values (under very high greenhouse gas concentrations, the most likely value is 45 centimetres). However, MICI is not required to reproduce sea-level changes due to Antarctic ice loss in the mid-Pliocene epoch, the last interglacial period or 1992–2017; without it we find that the projections agree with previous studies (all 95th percentiles are less than 43 centimetres). We conclude that previous interpretations of these MICI projections over-estimate sea-level rise this century; because the MICI hypothesis is not well constrained, confidence in projections with MICI would require a greater range of observationally constrained models of ice-shelf vulnerability and ice-cliff collapse. By better quantifying uncertainties for marine ice-cliff instability, future Antarctic ice loss is predicted to be much lower than previously estimated. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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