Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
| Autor: | Soumya Swaminathan, Berrak Bora Basara, Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan Khalifa, Nadim E. Karam, Jongmin Lee, Roberto Tchio Talongwa, Inga Dora Sigfusdottir, Yang Yang, Stein Emil Vollset, Joseph R. Masci, Daniel Dicker, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Shiwei Liu, Valentina Arsić Arsenijević, Ting Wu Chuang, Linhong Wang, Xiao Rong Wang, Bryan K. Phillips, Don C. Des Jarlais, Vasco Manuel Pedro Machado, Vasiliki Stathopoulou, David Phillips, Luke Nyakarahuka, Leslie T. Cooper, Sandra Nolte, Charles R. Newton, Christina Papachristou, Stephen G. Waller, Carlos Magis-Rodriguez, D. Allen Roberts, Elisabete Weiderpass, Aliya Naheed, Andre Keren, Amanda J. Mason-Jones, Karen J. Courville, Ted R. Miller, Kinnari S. Murthy, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Tommi Vasankari, Kyle J Foreman, Gabriel Alcalá-Cerra, Yousef Khader, Lorenzo Monasta, Austine Olufemi Adeyemo, Rakhi Dandona, Sanjay Basu, Samir Soneji, Rana J. Asghar, Yohannes Adama Melaku, Rafael Alfonso-Cristancho, John Q. Wong, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Young-Ho Khang, Dhruv S. Kazi, Tom Achoki, Homie Razavi, Uche S. Uchendu, Ashish Bhalla, Ferrán Catalá-López, Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang, Kim Moesgaard Iburg, Kaire Innos, Nicholas J K Breitborde, Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene, Elena Alvarez, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Qing Lan, Simon I. Hay, Kaushalendra Kumar, Ubai Alsharif, Scott B. Patten, Gelin Xu, Theo Vos, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Raghib Ali, Marcella Montico, Andrea P. Silva, Robert G. Weintraub, Timothy M. Wolock, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Heidi J. Larson, Kingsley N. Ukwaja, Saad B. Omer, Scott Weichenthal, D. Alex Quistberg, Justin Beardsley, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Jennifer H MacLachlan, Hsien-Ho Lin, H. Dean Hosgood, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Ryan M Barber, Ibrahim Abubakar, Irma Khonelidze, Ileana B. Heredia Pi, Cyrus Cooper, Hilton Lam, Urbano Fra Paleo, Joshua A. Salomon, Ricky Leung, Farshad Pourmalek, Robert G. Nelson, Konstantinos Stroumpoulis, Megan Coggeshall, Mazin J. Al Kahbouri, Richard G. Ellenbogen, Hwashin Hyun Shin, Ida Kankindi, Guohong Jiang, Yanping Wang, Daniel Obadare Fijabi, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Chakib Nejjari, Diego De Leo, Rashmi Gupta, Gene F. Kwan, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Kenji Shibuya, Hassan Amini, Nsanzimana Sabin, Benjamin C Cowie, Karen M. Tabb, Chanda Kulkarni, Jed D. Blore, Amado D Quezada, Norito Kawakami, Walid Ammar, Van C. Lansingh, François Alla, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Yichong Li, Vineet K. Chadha, Jasvinder A. Singh, Agnes Binagwaho, Andrew L. Thorne-Lyman, Denis Nash, Palwasha Anwari, Mohammad T Mashal, Kim Yun Jin, Steven E. Lipshultz, Veena S. Kulkarni, Amitava Banerjee, Naohiro Yonemoto, James D. Wilkinson, Aslam Pervaiz, Emilie Agardh, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Alan D. Lopez, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Abraham D. Flaxman, Boris I. Pavlin, Karen Sliwa, Dima M. Qato, G Anil Kumar, Lynne Gaffikin, K.M. Venkat Narayan, Luca Ronfani, Kazem Rahimi, Vivekanand Jha, Gokalp Kadri Yentur, Wagner Marcenes, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Anwar Rafay, Anand Dayama, Robert Quentin Reilly, Alaa Badawi, Selen Begüm Uzun, James Leigh, Vinay Nangia, Ivy Shiue, J Brown, Nobhojit Roy, Genesis May J. Samonte, Edward J Mills, Soewarta Kosen, Atsushi Goto, Sajjad Ur Rahman, Jose C. Adsuar, Semaw Ferede Abera, Jefferson Traebert, Amiran Gamkrelidze, Andrew H. Kemp, Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov, André Karch, Edgar P. Simard, Aref A. Bin Abdulhak, Samath D Dharmaratne, Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider, Andre Pascal Kengne, Corine Karema, Harish Chander Gugnani, Reza Assadi, Glen Mola, Paulo A. Lotufo, Christopher J L Murray, Rajeev Gupta, Philimon Gona, Mustafa Z. Younis, Herbert C. Duber, Mitchell T. Wallin, Arjun Lakshmana Balaji, Max Petzold, Francesco Saverio Violante, Monika Sawhney, Kovin Naidoo, Mercedes Colomar, Chuanhua Yu, Mitsuru Mukaigawara, Emerito Jose A. Faraon, Jung-Chen Chang, A Artaman, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Dickens Akena, Xiao Nong Zou, Knud Juel, Mohammed I. Albittar, Mohammad Yahya Saeedi, Sergey Petrovich Ermakov, Ole Frithjof Norheim, Graeme J. Hankey, Jerry Puthenpurakal Abraham, Mouhanad Hammami, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Rintaro Mori, Maia Kereselidze, Josep Maria Haro, Emily Dansereau, Michael Brainin, Elizabeth Glaser, Ziad A. Memish, Anders Larsson, Solomon Meseret Woldeyohannes, Azmeraw T. Amare, Louisa Degenhardt, Yuichiro Yano, Luke D. Knibbs, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Hilda L Harb, In-Hwan Oh, Katherine B Gibney, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Adansi A. Amankwaa, Nicholas Graetz, Fortuné Gbètoho Gankpé, Vincent Nowaseb, David M. Pereira, Alan J Thomson, Miguel Angel Alegretti, Rupak Shivakoti, Adnan M. Durrani, Dipan Bose, Saleem M Rana, Mohammad Taghi Hedayati, Mohsen Naghavi, Vegard Skirbekk, Walter Mendoza, Ali H. Mokdad, Soraya Seedat, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Edson Serván-Mori, Anil Kaul, Foad Abd-Allah, Paul S. F. Yip, Marek Majdan, Peter A. Meaney, Kebede Deribe, Paul N. Jensen, Fabiola Mejía-Rodríguez, Bradford D. Gessner, Ami R. Moore, Marie Ng, Maigeng Zhou, Mohammad H. Forouzanfar, John J Huang, Tim Driscoll, Samia Alhabib, Jun Zhu, Michael H. Criqui, Eduardo Bernabé, Lalit Dandona, Miltiadis K. Tsilimbaris, Borja del Pozo-Cruz, Johan Ärnlöv, Luigi Naldi, Tariku Jibat Beyene, Rasmus Havmoeller, Bongani M. Mayosi, Konrad Pesudovs, Richard A. White, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Orish Ebere Orisakwe, Graça Maria Ferreira De Lima, Yang Liu, Haidong Wang, Yongmei Li, Bryan L. Sykes, Ronny Westerman, Vinod K. Paul, Angel J Paternina Caicedo, Abigail C. McKay, Eric L. Ding, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Uur Dilmen, Stephen S Lim, Andrew Vallely, Alireza Esteghamati, Seok Jun Yoon, John Hornberger, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Yong Zhao, Thomas D. Fleming, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Damian G Hoy, Hebe N. Gouda, Mall Leinsalu, Elizabeth Johnson, Wilkister N. Moturi, Bach Xuan Tran, Donald H. Silberberg, Yingfeng Zheng, Lydia S. Atkins, Hans W. Hoek, Muluken Dessalegn, David C. Schwebel, Christopher C. Mapoma, Jost B. Jonas, Tolesa Bekele, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed Ginawi, Bulat Idrisov, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Thomas N. Williams, Jeffrey A. Towbin, Caterina Guinovart, Jeyaraj D Pandian, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Taavi Lai, Haidong Kan, Tasara T. Mazorodze, Murugesan Raju, Randah R. Hamadeh, Neil Pearce, Melvin Barrientos Marzan, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, John Nelson Opio, Deena Alasfoor, Peter J. Hotez, Jonas Minet Kinge, Peter J. Allen, Eric Y. Tenkorang, Sudan Prasad Neupane, Laith J. Abu-Raddad, Katrina F Ortblad, Arsène Kouablan Adou, Farshad Farzadfar, Sergey Soshnikov, Neeraj Bhala, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Kyle R. Heuton, Michelle L. Bell, Yohannes Kinfu, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Belinda K Lloyd, R. Kumar, Jan Hendrik Richardus, Benjamin O. Anderson |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Cell biology, Epidemiology, Public Health, Erasmus MC other, Pathology, Cardiothoracic Surgery, Murray, Christopher J.L, Ortblad, Katrina F., Guinovart, Caterina, Lim, Stephen S., Wolock, Timothy M., Roberts, D. Allen, Dansereau, Emily A., Graetz, Nichola, Barber, Ryan M., Brown, Jonathan C., Wang, Haidong, Duber, Herbert C., Naghavi, Mohsen, Dicker, Daniel, Dandona, Lalit, Salomon, Joshua A., Heuton, Kyle R., Foreman, Kyle, Phillips, David E., Fleming, Thomas D., Flaxman, Abraham D., Phillips, Bryan K., Johnson, Elizabeth K., Coggeshall, Megan S., Abd-Allah, Foad, Abera, Semaw Ferede, Abraham, Jerry P., Abubakar, Ibrahim, Abu-Raddad, Laith J., Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me, Achoki, Tom, Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi, Adou, Arsène Kouablan, Adsuar, José C., Agardh, Emilie Elisabet, Akena, Dicken, Al Kahbouri, Mazin J., Alasfoor, Deena, Albittar, Mohammed I., Alcalá-Cerra, Gabriel, Alegretti, Miguel Angel, Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw, Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael, Alhabib, Samia, Ali, Raghib, Alla, Francoi, Allen, Peter J., Alsharif, Ubai, Alvarez, Elena, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amankwaa, Adansi A., Amare, Azmeraw T., Amini, Hassan, Ammar, Walid, Anderson, Benjamin O., Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Anwari, Palwasha, Ärnlöv, Johan, Arsic Arsenijevic, Valentina S., Artaman, Ali, Asghar, Rana J., Assadi, Reza, Atkins, Lydia S., Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Banerjee, Amitava, Basu, Sanjay, Beardsley, Justin, Bekele, Tolesa, Bell, Michelle L., Bernabe, Eduardo, Beyene, Tariku Jibat, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhalla, Ashish, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Bin Abdulhak, Aref, Binagwaho, Agne, Blore, Jed D., Bora Basara, Berrak, Bose, Dipan, Brainin, Michael, Breitborde, Nichola, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A., Catalá-López, Ferrán, Chadha, Vineet K., Chang, Jung-Chen, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Chuang, Ting-Wu, Colomar, Mercede, Cooper, Leslie Trumbull, Cooper, Cyru, Courville, Karen J., Cowie, Benjamin C., Criqui, Michael H., Dandona, Rakhi, Dayama, Anand, De Leo, Diego, Degenhardt, Louisa, Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja, Deribe, Kebede, Des Jarlais, Don C., Dessalegn, Muluken, Dharmaratne, Samath D., Dilmen, Uur, Ding, Eric L., Driscoll, Tim R., Durrani, Adnan M., Ellenbogen, Richard G., Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich, Esteghamati, Alireza, Faraon, Emerito Jose A., Farzadfar, Farshad, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fijabi, Daniel Obadare, Forouzanfar, Mohammad H., Paleo, Urbano Fra., Gaffikin, Lynne, Gamkrelidze, Amiran, Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho, Geleijnse, Johanna M., Gessner, Bradford D., Gibney, Katherine B., Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed, Glaser, Elizabeth L., Gona, Philimon, Goto, Atsushi, Gouda, Hebe N., Gugnani, Harish Chander, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Rahul, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hammami, Mouhanad, Hankey, Graeme J., Harb, Hilda L., Haro, Josep Maria, Havmoeller, Rasmu, Hay, Simon I., Hedayati, Mohammad T., Heredia Pi, Ileana B., Hoek, Hans W., Hornberger, John C., Hosgood, H. Dean, Hotez, Peter J., Hoy, Damian G., Huang, John J., Iburg, Kim M., Idrisov, Bulat T., Innos, Kaire, Jacobsen, Kathryn H., Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jensen, Paul N., Jha, Vivekanand, Jiang, Guohong, Jonas, Jost B., Juel, Knud, Kan, Haidong, Kankindi, Ida, Karam, Nadim E., Karch, André, Karema, Corine Kakizi, Kaul, Anil, Kawakami, Norito, Kazi, Dhruv S., Kemp, Andrew H., Kengne, Andre Pascal, Keren, Andre, Kereselidze, Maia, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan, Khan, Ejaz Ahmed, Khang, Young-Ho, Khonelidze, Irma, Kinfu, Yohanne, Kinge, Jonas M., Knibbs, Luke, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kosen, S., Kuate Defo, Barthelemy, Kulkarni, Veena S., Kulkarni, Chanda, Kumar, Kaushalendra, Kumar, Ravi B., Kumar, G. Anil, Kwan, Gene F., Lai, Taavi, Lakshmana Balaji, Arjun, Lam, Hilton, Lan, Qing, Lansingh, Van C., Larson, Heidi J., Larsson, Ander, Lee, Jong-Tae, Leigh, Jame, Leinsalu, Mall, Leung, Ricky, Li, Yichong, Li, Yongmei, De Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira, Lin, Hsien-Ho, Lipshultz, Steven E., Liu, Shiwei, Liu, Yang, Lloyd, Belinda K., Lotufo, Paulo A., Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro, Maclachlan, Jennifer H., Magis-Rodriguez, Carlo, Majdan, Marek, Mapoma, Christopher Chabila, Marcenes, Wagner, Marzan, Melvin Barriento, Masci, Joseph R., Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq, Mason-Jones, Amanda J., Mayosi, Bongani M., Mazorodze, Tasara T., Mckay, Abigail Cecilia, Meaney, Peter A., Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola, Melaku, Yohannes Adama, Memish, Ziad A., Mendoza, Walter, Miller, Ted R., Mills, Edward J., Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mokdad, Ali H., Mola, Glen Liddell, Monasta, Lorenzo, Montico, Marcella, Moore, Ami R., Mori, Rintaro, Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora, Mukaigawara, Mitsuru, Murthy, Kinnari S., Naheed, Aliya, Naidoo, Kovin S., Naldi, Luigi, Nangia, Vinay, Narayan, K.M. Venkat, Nash, Deni, Nejjari, Chakib, Nelson, Robert G., Neupane, Sudan Prasad, Newton, Charles R., Ng, Marie, Nisar, Muhammad Imran, Nolte, Sandra, Norheim, Ole F., Nowaseb, Vincent, Nyakarahuka, Luke, Oh, In-Hwan, Ohkubo, Takayoshi, Olusanya, Bolajoko O., Omer, Saad B., Opio, John Nelson, Orisakwe, Orish Ebere, Pandian, Jeyaraj D., Papachristou, Christina, Paternina Caicedo, Angel J., Patten, Scott B., Paul, Vinod K., Pavlin, Boris Igor, Pearce, Neil, Pereira, David M., Pervaiz, Aslam, Pesudovs, Konrad, Petzold, Max, Pourmalek, Farshad, Qato, Dima, Quezada, Amado D., Quistberg, D. Alex, Rafay, Anwar, Rahimi, Kazem, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Rahman, Sajjad Ur, Raju, Murugesan, Rana, Saleem M., Razavi, Homie, Reilly, Robert Quentin, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Richardus, Jan Hendrik, Ronfani, Luca, Roy, Nobhojit, Sabin, Nsanzimana, Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Samonte, Genesis May J., Sawhney, Monika, Schneider, Ione J.C., Schwebel, David C., Seedat, Soraya, Sepanlou, Sadaf G., Servan-Mori, Edson E., Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Shibuya, Kenji, Shin, Hwashin Hyun, Shiue, Ivy, Shivakoti, Rupak, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Silberberg, Donald H., Silva, Andrea P., Simard, Edgar P., Singh, Jasvinder A., Skirbekk, Vegard, Sliwa, Karen, Soneji, Samir, Soshnikov, Sergey S., Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T., Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi, Stroumpoulis, Konstantino, Swaminathan, Soumya, Sykes, Bryan L., Tabb, Karen M., Talongwa, Roberto Tchio, Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Thomson, Alan J., Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L., Towbin, Jeffrey A., Traebert, Jefferson, Tran, Bach X., Tsala Dimbuene, Zacharie, Tsilimbaris, Miltiadi, Uchendu, Uche S., Ukwaja, Kingsley N., Uzun, Selen Begüm, Vallely, Andrew J., Vasankari, Tommi J., Venketasubramanian, N., Violante, Francesco S., Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Waller, Stephen, Wallin, Mitchell T., Wang, Linhong, Wang, Xiao Rong, Wang, Yanping, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G., Westerman, Ronny, White, Richard A., Wilkinson, James D., Williams, Thomas Neil, Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret, Wong, John Q., Xu, Gelin, Yang, Yang C., Yano, Yuichiro, Yentur, Gokalp Kadri, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Younis, Mustafa, Yu, Chuanhua, Jin, Kim Yun, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Zhao, Yong, Zheng, Yingfeng, Zhou, Maigeng, Zhu, Jun, Zou, Xiao Nong, Lopez, Alan D., Vos, Theo |
| Rok vydání: | 2014 |
| Předmět: |
Gerontology
SEVERE FEBRILE ILLNESS Male verbal autopsy Nutrition and Disease Cost effectiveness MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS HIV Infections active antiretroviral therapy Global Health COST-EFFECTIVENESS 0302 clinical medicine Voeding en Ziekte Global health HIV Infection 030212 general & internal medicine 0303 health sciences ACTIVE ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY Incidence (epidemiology) Medicine (all) Incidence General Medicine Millennium Development Goals 3. Good health middle-income countries projection package World Health VERBAL AUTOPSY Female Human Tuberculosis Tuberculosi PROJECTION PACKAGE prospective cohort Epidemic millennium development goals 03 medical and health sciences Age Distribution Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES medicine Organizational Objective Humans Organizational Objectives FEMALE SEX WORKERS Mortality Sex Distribution Epidemics cost-effectiveness female sex workers 030304 developmental biology VLAG business.industry plasmodium-falciparum malaria PLASMODIUM-FALCIPARUM MALARIA medicine.disease Verbal autopsy Malaria PROSPECTIVE COHORT severe febrile illness business Demography |
| Zdroj: | The Lancet, 384(9947), 1005-1070. ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC The Lancet, 384(9947), 1005-1070 Europe PubMed Central Lancet (UK), 384(9947), 1005-1070. Elsevier Ltd. The Lancet 384 (2014) 9947 Murray, C J L, Ortblad, K F, Guinovart, C, Lim, S S, Wolock, T M, Roberts, D A, Dansereau, E A, Graetz, N, Barber, R M, Brown, J C, Wang, H, Duber, H C, Naghavi, M, Dicker, D, Dandona, L, Salomon, J A, Heuton, K R, Foreman, K, Phillips, D E, Fleming, T D, Flaxman, A D, Phillips, B K, Johnson, E K, Coggeshall, M S, Abd-Allah, F, Abera, S F, Abraham, J P, Abubakar, I, Abu-Raddad, L J, Abu-Rmeileh, N M, Achoki, T, Adeyemo, A O, Adou, A K, Adsuar, J C, Agardh, E E, Akena, D, Al Kahbouri, M J, Alasfoor, D, Albittar, M I, Alcalá-Cerra, G, Alegretti, M A, Alemu, Z A, Alfonso-Cristancho, R, Alhabib, S, Ali, R, Alla, F, Allen, P J, Alsharif, U, Alvarez, E, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amankwaa, A A, Amare, A T, Amini, H, Ammar, W, Anderson, B O, Antonio, C A T, Anwari, P, Arnlöv, J, Arsenijevic, V S A, Artaman, A, Asghar, R J, Assadi, R, Atkins, L S, Badawi, A, Balakrishnan, K, Banerjee, A, Basu, S, Beardsley, J, Bekele, T, Bell, M L, Bernabe, E, Beyene, T J, Bhala, N, Bhalla, A, Bhutta, Z A, Abdulhak, A B, Binagwaho, A, Blore, J D, Basara, B B, Bose, D, Brainin, M, Breitborde, N, Castañeda-Orjuela, C A, Catalá-López, F, Chadha, V K, Chang, J-C, Chiang, P P-C, Chuang, T-W, Colomar, M, Cooper, L T, Cooper, C, Courville, K J, Cowie, B C, Criqui, M H, Dandona, R, Dayama, A, De Leo, D, Degenhardt, L, Del Pozo-Cruz, B, Deribe, K, Des Jarlais, D C, Dessalegn, M, Dharmaratne, S D, Dilmen, U, Ding, E L, Driscoll, T R, Durrani, A M, Ellenbogen, R G, Ermakov, S P, Esteghamati, A, Faraon, E J A, Farzadfar, F, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fijabi, D O, Forouzanfar, M H, Fra Paleo, U, Gaffikin, L, Gamkrelidze, A, Gankpé, F G, Geleijnse, J M, Gessner, B D, Gibney, K B, Ginawi, I A M, Glaser, E L, Gona, P, Goto, A, Gouda, H N, Gugnani, H C, Gupta, R, Gupta, R, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Hamadeh, R R, Hammami, M, Hankey, G J, Harb, H L, Haro, J M, Havmoeller, R, Hay, S I, Hedayati, M T, Pi, I B H, Hoek, H W, Hornberger, J C, Hosgood, H D, Hotez, P J, Hoy, D G, Huang, J J, Iburg, K M, Idrisov, B T, Innos, K, Jacobsen, K H, Jeemon, P, Jensen, P N, Jha, V, Jiang, G, Jonas, J B, Juel, K, Kan, H, Kankindi, I, Karam, N E, Karch, A, Karema, C K, Kaul, A, Kawakami, N, Kazi, D S, Kemp, A H, Kengne, A P, Keren, A, Kereselidze, M, Khader, Y S, Khalifa, S E A H, Khan, E A, Khang, Y-H, Khonelidze, I, Kinfu, Y, Kinge, J M, Knibbs, L, Kokubo, Y, Kosen, S, Defo, B K, Kulkarni, V S, Kulkarni, C, Kumar, K, Kumar, R B, Kumar, G A, Kwan, G F, Lai, T, Balaji, A L, Lam, H, Lan, Q, Lansingh, V C, Larson, H J, Larsson, A, Lee, J-T, Leigh, J, Leinsalu, M, Leung, R, Li, Y, Li, Y, De Lima, G M F, Lin, H-H, Lipshultz, S E, Liu, S, Liu, Y, Lloyd, B K, Lotufo, P A, Machado, V M P, Maclachlan, J H, Magis-Rodriguez, C, Majdan, M, Mapoma, C C, Marcenes, W, Marzan, M B, Masci, J R, Mashal, M T, Mason-Jones, A J, Mayosi, B M, Mazorodze, T T, Mckay, A C, Meaney, P A, Mehndiratta, M M, Mejia-Rodriguez, F, Melaku, Y A, Memish, Z A, Mendoza, W, Miller, T R, Mills, E J, Mohammad, K A, Mokdad, A H, Mola, G L, Monasta, L, Montico, M, Moore, A R, Mori, R, Moturi, W N, Mukaigawara, M, Murthy, K S, Naheed, A, Naidoo, K S, Naldi, L, Nangia, V, Narayan, K M V, Nash, D, Nejjari, C, Nelson, R G, Neupane, S P, Newton, C R, Ng, M, Nisar, M I, Nolte, S, Norheim, O F, Nowaseb, V, Nyakarahuka, L, Oh, I-H, Ohkubo, T, Olusanya, B O, Omer, S B, Opio, J N, Orisakwe, O E, Pandian, J D, Papachristou, C, Caicedo, A J P, Patten, S B, Paul, V K, Pavlin, B I, Pearce, N, Pereira, D M, Pervaiz, A, Pesudovs, K, Petzold, M, Pourmalek, F, Qato, D, Quezada, A D, Quistberg, D A, Rafay, A, Rahimi, K, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Ur Rahman, S, Raju, M, Rana, S M, Razavi, H, Reilly, R Q, Remuzzi, G, Richardus, J H, Ronfani, L, Roy, N, Sabin, N, Saeedi, M Y, Sahraian, M A, Samonte, G M J, Sawhney, M, Schneider, I J C, Schwebel, D C, Seedat, S, Sepanlou, S G, Servan-Mori, E E, Sheikhbahaei, S, Shibuya, K, Shin, H H, Shiue, I, Shivakoti, R, Sigfusdottir, I D, Silberberg, D H, Silva, A P, Simard, E P, Singh, J A, Skirbekk, V, Sliwa, K, Soneji, S, Soshnikov, S S, Sreeramareddy, C T, Stathopoulou, V K, Stroumpoulis, K, Swaminathan, S, Sykes, B L, Tabb, K M, Talongwa, R T, Tenkorang, E Y, Terkawi, A S, Thomson, A J, Thorne-Lyman, A L, Towbin, J A, Traebert, J, Tran, B X, Dimbuene, Z T, Tsilimbaris, M, Uchendu, U S, Ukwaja, K N, Uzun, S B, Vallely, A J, Vasankari, T J, Venketasubramanian, N, Violante, F S, Vlassov, V V, Vollset, S E, Waller, S, Wallin, M T, Wang, L, Wang, X, Wang, Y, Weichenthal, S, Weiderpass, E, Weintraub, R G, Westerman, R, White, R A, Wilkinson, J D, Williams, T N, Woldeyohannes, S M, Wong, J Q, Xu, G, Yang, Y C, Yano, Y, Yentur, G K, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yoon, S-J, Younis, M, Yu, C, Jin, K Y, El Sayed Zaki, M, Zhao, Y, Zheng, Y, Zhou, M, Zhu, J, Zou, X N, Lopez, A D & Vos, T 2014, ' Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 ', Lancet, vol. 384, no. 9947, pp. 1005-1070 . https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8 |
| ISSN: | 1474-547X 0140-6736 |
| Popis: | BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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