Responsibilities for glacier mass loss in the Alps
| Autor: | Eis, Julia, Marzeion, Ben |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2023 |
| Zdroj: | XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) |
| Popis: | Anthropogenic contribution to global glacier mass loss started to be clearly detectable at the latest in the second half of the 20th century, but greenhouse gas emissions started earlier. Apart from natural variability masking the anthropogenic signal, the delayed detection in glacier mass loss is caused by the long response time of glaciers to climate change. This implies that emissions do not only have an impact on glacier mass loss when they occur, but also far beyond.Here, we present an approach designed to quantify the temporally accumulated contribution of past emissions to past and future glacier mass loss.Using the simple climate model FaIR (Finite Amplitude Impulse Response), we converted the emission pathway of single emitters (e.g., countries) to their yearly contribution to the global mean temperature anomaly. In order to quantify the delayed glacier response, we performed idealized experiments with OGGM (Open Global Glacier Model), taking into account the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation anomalies. This allows us to estimate a time series of glacier mass change resulting from a specified time series of global mean temperature change, such that we can link arbitrary emissions in a given year to a corresponding time series of glacier mass loss.In a first attempt, we applied our method to all glaciers of the Alps, and forced our simulations with the CMIP6 “historical” data set using 13 different GCMs. In this way, we were able to allocate country-specific responsibilities for past and future glacier mass loss in the Alps. The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023) |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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