Factors influencing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and outbreak control measures in densely populated settings
| Autor: | Junxiong Pang, Bernard Lin, Clive Tan, Sebastian Maurer-Stroh, Fernanda L. Sirota, Sophie Octavia, Biauw Chi Ong, Iain Beehuat Tan, Vernon J. Lee, Tze Minn Mak, Rachael Pung, Alex R. Cook |
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| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
medicine.medical_specialty Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Epidemiology Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Science Attack rate Disease Article law.invention Disease Outbreaks 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine law Environmental health Medicine Humans 030212 general & internal medicine Phylogeny Population Density Multidisciplinary business.industry SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak COVID-19 030104 developmental biology Transmission (mechanics) Viral infection Outbreak control business |
| Zdroj: | Scientific Reports Scientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-11 (2021) |
| ISSN: | 2045-2322 |
| Popis: | Starting with a handful of SARS-CoV-2 infections in dormitory residents in late March 2020, rapid transmission in their dense living environments ensued and by October 2020, more than 50,000 acute infections were identified across various dormitories in Singapore. The aim of the study is to identify combination of factors facilitating SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of control measures in a dormitory through extensive epidemiological, serological and phylogenetic investigations, supported by simulation models. Our findings showed that asymptomatic cases and symptomatic cases who did not seek medical attention were major drivers of the outbreak. Furthermore, each resident had about 30 close contacts and each infected resident spread to 4.4 (IQR 3.5–5.3) others at the start of the outbreak. The final attack rate of the current outbreak was 76.2% (IQR 70.6–98.0%) and could be reduced by further 10% under a modified dormitory housing condition. These findings are important when designing living environments in a post COVID-19 future to reduce disease spread and facilitate rapid implementation of outbreak control measures. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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