Weather forecast in north-western Greece: RISKMED warnings and verification of MM5 model
| Autor: | Antonis Gkikas, Kostas Lagouvardos, Christos J. Lolis, Aristides Bartzokas, Vassiliki Kotroni, M. I. Tsirogianni |
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| Rok vydání: | 2010 |
| Předmět: |
Meteorology
cyclone Weather forecasting computer.software_genre lcsh:TD1-1066 Wind speed MM5 lcsh:Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering lcsh:Environmental sciences lcsh:GE1-350 variability lcsh:QE1-996.5 lcsh:Geography. Anthropology. Recreation climatology Lightning Surface weather observation lcsh:Geology Model output statistics lcsh:G Climatology Thunderstorm General Earth and Planetary Sciences Early warning system Environmental science computer mediterranean region |
| Zdroj: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 10, Iss 2, Pp 383-394 (2010) |
| ISSN: | 1684-9981 |
| DOI: | 10.5194/nhess-10-383-2010 |
| Popis: | The meteorological model MM5 is applied operationally for the area of north-western Greece for one-year period (1 June 2007–31 May 2008). The model output is used for daily weather forecasting over the area. An early warning system is developed, by dividing the study area in 16 sub-regions and defining specific thresholds for issuing alerts for adverse weather phenomena. The verification of the model is carried out by comparing the model results with observations from three automatic meteorological stations. For air temperature and wind speed, correlation coefficients and biases are calculated, revealing that there is a significant overestimation of the early morning air temperature. For precipitation amount, yes/no contingency tables are constructed for 4 specific thresholds and some categorical statistics are applied, showing that the prediction of precipitation in the area under study is generally satisfactory. Finally, the thunderstorm warnings issued by the system are verified against the observed lightning activity. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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