| Popis: |
The aim of this paper is to explore potential least-cost decarbonisation solutions for an off-grid and offshore fish farm power supply system under long term uncertainty. The Hinnøya island in Norway is used as a use case. Three distinctive off-grid and grid-based alternative power supply solutions were proposed and studied as a replacement to the existing diesel power solution in a three-stage stochastic model and under two critical long-term uncertainties: (1) access to strong grid and (2) storage battery cost. The TIMES modelling framework is applied. The stochastic model results reveal that grid integrated storage is an optimal near-term investment for a storage battery cost of 295 €/kWh and less by 2025. In scenarios with no access to strong grid, grid integrated storage continues to be a least-cost solution in the long-term as well, whereas in those scenarios with strong grid access, new investment in storage is not required after 2030. Contrary to the stochastic model runs, the equivalent deterministic model runs showed that a hybrid wind and diesel solution is an optimal near-term investment. From 2030, however, a similar technology pattern in both stochastic and deterministic model runs are observed. Nevertheless, the results are very sensitive to the assumed storage battery costs. Higher storage costs (as high as 704 €/kWh by 2025) would make the hybrid wind and diesel solution an optimal solution instead of the grid integrated storage solution in near-term investment in both stochastic and deterministic model runs. |
