A Modeling and Analysis Framework for Integrated Energy Systems Exposed to Climate Change-Induced NaTech Accidental Scenarios
| Autor: | Francesco Di Maio, Pietro Tonicello, Enrico Zio |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2022 |
| Předmět: |
NaTech scenarios
Environmental effects of industries and plants Renewable Energy Sustainability and the Environment Annual failure probability (AFP) Geography Planning and Development TJ807-830 System average interruption frequency index (SAIFI) Management Monitoring Policy and Law TD194-195 Renewable energy sources Environmental sciences Integrated energy systems (IES) Climate change GE1-350 Loss exceedance probability (LEP) integrated energy systems (IES) climate change Monte Carlo simulation CVaR system average interruption frequency index (SAIFI) annual failure probability (AFP) loss exceedance probability (LEP) |
| Zdroj: | Sustainability; Volume 14; Issue 2; Pages: 786 Sustainability, Vol 14, Iss 786, p 786 (2022) |
| ISSN: | 2071-1050 |
| DOI: | 10.3390/su14020786 |
| Popis: | This paper proposes a novel framework for the analysis of integrated energy systems (IESs) exposed to both stochastic failures and “shock” climate-induced failures, such as those characterizing NaTech accidental scenarios. With such a framework, standard centralized systems (CS), IES with distributed generation (IES-DG) and IES with bidirectional energy conversion (IES+P2G) enabled by power-to-gas (P2G) facilities can be analyzed. The framework embeds the model of each single production plant in an integrated power-flow model and then couples it with a stochastic failures model and a climate-induced failure model, which simulates the occurrence of extreme weather events (e.g., flooding) driven by climate change. To illustrate how to operationalize the analysis in practice, a case study of a realistic IES has been considered that comprises two combined cycle gas turbine plants (CCGT), a nuclear power plant (NPP), two wind farms (WF), a solar photovoltaicS (PV) field and a power-to-gas station (P2G). Results suggest that the IESs are resilient to climate-induced failures. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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