Probabilistic forecasting of wind power production losses in cold climates : a case study
| Autor: | Anna Sjöblom, Heiner Körnich, Jennie Molinder, Esbjörn Olsson, Hans Bergström |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2018 |
| Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Meteorology lcsh:TJ807-830 Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning 0211 other engineering and technologies lcsh:Renewable energy sources Energy Engineering and Power Technology Forecast skill 02 engineering and technology precipitation 01 natural sciences 021108 energy wet snow Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Icing Wind power model Ensemble forecasting Renewable Energy Sustainability and the Environment business.industry Probabilistic logic Geography Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Quantitative precipitation forecast Probabilistic forecasting Consensus forecast business strategy ensemble prediction |
| Zdroj: | Wind Energy Science, Vol 3, Pp 667-680 (2018) |
| ISSN: | 2366-7451 |
| Popis: | The problem of icing on wind turbines in cold climates is addressed using probabilistic forecasting to improve next- day forecasts of icing and related production losses. A case study of probabilistic forecasts was generated for a two- week period. Uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions are represented with an ensemble forecasting system, while uncertainties in the spatial representation are included with a neighbourhood method. Using probabilistic forecasting instead of one single forecast was shown to improve the forecast skill of the ice-related production loss forecasts and hence the icing forecasts. The spread of the multiple forecasts can be used as an estimate of the forecast uncertainty and of the likelihood for icing and severe production losses. Best results, both in terms of forecast skill and forecasted uncertainty, were achieved using both the ensemble forecast and the neighbourhood method combined. This demonstrates that the application of probabilistic forecasting for wind power in cold climate can be valuable when planning next-day energy production, in the usage of de-icing systems, and for site safety. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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