Development of a Risk Prediction Score to Identify High-Risk Groups for the Critical Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan
| Autor: | Noritaka Sekiya, Kozue Tanaka, Yuta Yamada, Sho Fujiwara, Keishiro Yajima, Akifumi Imamura, Taiichiro Kobayashi, Masaru Tanaka, Kazuaki Fukushima |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Adult
Male 0301 basic medicine Microbiology (medical) medicine.medical_specialty Multivariate analysis Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) 030106 microbiology Comorbidity Severity of Illness Index 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Risk groups Japan Risk Factors Internal medicine Severity of illness medicine Humans 030212 general & internal medicine Aged Retrospective Studies Prediction score SARS-CoV-2 business.industry COVID-19 Cancer Retrospective cohort study General Medicine Middle Aged medicine.disease Hospitalization Infectious Diseases Female business |
| Zdroj: | Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases. 74:344-351 |
| ISSN: | 1884-2836 1344-6304 |
| DOI: | 10.7883/yoken.jjid.2020.789 |
| Popis: | Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in mid-December 2019 and has rapidly spread worldwide. We conducted a retrospective analysis of data from patients with COVID-19 to construct a simple risk prediction score to be implemented in prehospital settings. Patients were classified into critical and non-critical groups based on disease severity during hospitalization. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors and develop a risk prediction score. A total of 234 patients were included in the study. The median age of the critical group was significantly older than that of the non-critical group (68.0 and 44.0 years, respectively), and the percentage of males in the critical group was higher than that in the non-critical group (90.2% and 60.6%, respectively). Multivariate analysis revealed that factors such as age ≥ 45 years, male sex, comorbidities such as hypertension and cancer, and having fever and dyspnea on admission were independently associated with the critical COVID-19 infection. No critical events were noted in patients with a total risk factor score of ≤ 2. Contrastingly, patients with a total risk factor score ≥ 4 were more likely to have critical COVID-19 infection. This risk prediction score may be useful in identifying critical COVID-19 infections. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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