Development and validation of a knowledge-driven risk calculator for critical illness in COVID-19 patients
Autor: | Dror Dicker, Aliza Zeidman, Roee Masad, Boaz Tadmor, Evgeny Berkov, Tamar Gottesman, Amos Cahan, Michal Tzuchman Katz, Gal Azulay, Shaul Lev |
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Jazyk: | angličtina |
Rok vydání: | 2021 |
Předmět: |
Male
medicine.medical_specialty Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Critical Care medicine.medical_treatment Critical Illness Disease Risk Assessment Article law.invention 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine COVID-19 Testing law Risk Factors Intensive care Pandemic medicine Humans Israel Aged Retrospective Studies Mechanical ventilation business.industry Clinical Laboratory Techniques COVID-19 030208 emergency & critical care medicine Cognition General Medicine Middle Aged 3. Good health Hospitalization Calculator Emergency medicine Critical illness Emergency Medicine Female business |
Zdroj: | The American Journal of Emergency Medicine |
ISSN: | 0735-6757 |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.ajem.2020.09.051 |
Popis: | Facing the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, evidence to inform decision-making at all care levels is essential. Based on the results of a study by Petrilli et al., we have developed a calculator using patient data at admission to predict critical illness (intensive care, mechanical ventilation, hospice care, or death). We report a retrospective validation of the calculator on 145 consecutive patients admitted with COVID-19 to a single hospital in Israel. Despite considerable differences between the original and validation study populations, of 18 patients with critical illness, 17 were correctly identified (sensitivity: 94.4%, 95% CI, 72.7%–99.9%; specificity: 81.9%, 95% CI, 74.1%–88.2%). Of 127 patients with non-critical illness, 104 were correctly identified. Our results indicate that published knowledge can be reliably applied to assess patient risk, potentially reducing the cognitive burden on physicians, and helping policymakers better prepare for future needs. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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