Risks to future atoll habitability from climate-driven environmental changes

Autor: Alexandre K. Magnan, Gonéri Le Cozannet, Virginie Duvat, Jean-Pierre Gattuso, Chris T. Perry, Patrick D. Nunn, Thomas J. Spencer, Nicholas A. J. Graham, Arthur P. Webb, Ian White, Colette C. C. Wabnitz, Johann D. Bell, Kathleen L. McInnes
Přispěvatelé: LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés - UMRi 7266 (LIENSs), Université de La Rochelle (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales (IDDRI), Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris, University of Exeter, Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), University of Wollongong, Conservation International, University of British Columbia (UBC), Stockholm University, Stanford University, University of Wollongong [Australia], United Nations Development Porgramme, Australian National University (ANU), Data61 [Canberra] (CSIRO), Australian National University (ANU)-Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Laboratoire d'océanographie de Villefranche (LOV), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de la Mer de Villefranche (IMEV), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Lancaster University, University of the Sunshine Coast (USC), Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM), Duvat, VKE [0000-0002-9336-3833], Magnan, AK [0000-0001-7421-5184], Perry, CT [0000-0001-9398-2418], Spencer, T [0000-0003-2610-6201], Wabnitz, CCC [0000-0002-5076-9163], White, I [0000-0002-5455-4514], McInnes, KL [0000-0002-1810-7215], Gattuso, JP [0000-0002-4533-4114], Graham, NAJ [0000-0002-5332-0783], Nunn, PD [0000-0001-9295-5741], Le Cozannet, G [0000-0003-2421-3003], Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2021
Předmět:
Atmospheric Science
reef island
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Effects of global warming on oceans
[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes
Geography
Planning and Development
Atoll
Climate change
010501 environmental sciences
01 natural sciences
atolls
Human settlement
14. Life underwater
[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces
environment
Indian Ocean
[SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography
ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Shore
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean
Atmosphere
Global and Planetary Change
geography
Pacific Ocean
geography.geographical_feature_category
Habitability
climate change impacts
Pelagic zone
[SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography
[SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society
Fishery
habitability
13. Climate action
Tropical cyclone
Zdroj: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Wiley, 2021
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Wiley, 2021, 12 (3), pp.e700
ISSN: 1757-7799
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.700
Popis: © 2021 Wiley Periodicals LLC. Recent assessments of future risk to atoll habitability have focused on island erosion and submergence, and have overlooked the effects of other climate-related drivers, as well as differences between ocean basins and island types. Here we investigate the cumulative risk arising from multiple drivers (sea-level rise; changes in rainfall, ocean–atmosphere oscillations and tropical cyclone intensity; ocean warming and acidification) to five Habitability Pillars: Land, Freshwater supply, Food supply, Settlements and infrastructure, and Economic activities. Risk is assessed for urban and rural islands of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, in 2050 and 2090, and considering a moderate adaptation scenario. Risks will be highest in the Western Pacific which will experience increased island destabilization together with a high threat to freshwater, and decreased land-based and marine food supply from reef-dependent fish and tuna and tuna-like resources. Risk accumulation will occur at a lower rate in the Central Pacific (lower pressure on land, with more limited cascading effects on other Habitability Pillars; increase in pelagic fish stocks) and the Central Indian Ocean (mostly experiencing increased land destabilization and reef degradation). Risk levels will vary significantly between urban islands, depending on geomorphology and local shoreline disturbances. Rural islands will experience less contrasting risk levels, but higher risks than urban islands in the second half of the century. This article is categorized under: Trans-Disciplinary Perspectives > Regional Reviews.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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