Assessment of the national schistosomiasis control program in a typical region along the Yangtze River, China
| Autor: | Yue Chen, Yi Hu, Congcong Xia, Henry Lynn, Geng-Xin Chen, Zonggui He, Chenglong Xiong, Zhijie Zhang, Tiejun Zhang, Si Li |
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| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
medicine.medical_specialty China Endemic Diseases 030231 tropical medicine Population Dynamics Prevalence Schistosomiasis Sample (statistics) Biology Structural basin Environmental data 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Rivers medicine Animals Humans Socioeconomics Infection Control Public health Bayes Theorem medicine.disease 030104 developmental biology Infectious Diseases Yangtze river Schistosoma Parasitology |
| Zdroj: | International journal for parasitology. 47(1) |
| ISSN: | 1879-0135 |
| Popis: | Schistosomiasis remains a major public health problem in eastern China, particularly along the Yangtze River Basin. The latest national schistosomiasis control program (NSCP) was implemented in 2005 with the main goal of reducing the rate of infection to less than 5% by 2008 and 1% by 2015. To assess the progress, we applied a Bayesian spatio-temporal model to describe dynamics of schistosomiasis in Guichi, Anhui Province, China, using annual parasitological and environmental data collected within 41 sample villages for the period 2005-2011. Predictive maps of schistosomiasis showed that the disease prevalence remains constant and low. Results of uncertainty analysis, in the form of probability contour maps (PCMs), indicated that the first goal of "infection rate less than 5% by 2008" was fully achieved in the study area. More longitudinal data for schistosomiasis are needed for the assessment of the second goal of "infection rate less than 1% by 2015". Compared with the traditional way of mapping uncertainty (e.g., variance or mean-square error), our PCMs provide more realistic information for schistosomiasis control. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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