Scenario processes for socio-environmental systems analysis of futures: A review of recent efforts and a salient research agenda for supporting decision making

Autor: Serena H. Hamilton, Henrik Carlsen, Baihua Fu, Eric Kemp-Benedict, Crystal Drakes, Evelina Trutnevyte, Hannah Kosow, Bob Frame, Vanessa Schweizer, Dale S. Rothman, Céline Guivarch, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Anthony Jakeman, Hedwig van Delden, Kasper Kok, Michael J. Ryan, Sondoss Elsawah
Přispěvatelé: Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University (ANU), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Department of Environmental Systems Science [ETH Zürich] (D-USYS), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Laboratoire d'Études et de Recherches en Economie (LERECO CEDRAN), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Chaire MPDD, Geomorfologie, Coastal dynamics, Fluvial systems and Global change
Rok vydání: 2020
Předmět:
Zdroj: Science of the Total Environment
Science of the Total Environment, Elsevier, 2020, 729, pp.138393. ⟨10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138393⟩
Science of the Total Environment, 729, 1. Elsevier bedrijfsinformatie b.v.
Science of the Total Environment 729 (2020)
Science of the Total Environment, 729
Science of the Total Environment (2020) P. 138393
ISSN: 0048-9697
1879-1026
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138393
Popis: This paper reviews the latest research on scenarios including the processes and products for socio-environmental systems (SES) analysis, modeling and decision making. A group of scenario researchers and practitioners participated in a workshop to discuss consolidation of existing research on the development and use of scenario analysis in exploring and understanding the interplay between human and environmental systems. This paper presents an extended overview of the workshop discussions and follow-up review work. It is structured around the essential challenges that are crucial to progress support of decision making and learning with respect to our highly uncertain socio-environmental futures. It identifies a practical research agenda where challenges are grouped according to the process stage at which they are most significant: before, during, and after the creation of the scenarios as products. These challenges for SES include: enhancing the role of stakeholder and public engagement in the co-development of scenarios, linking scenarios across multiple geographical, sectoral and temporal scales, improving the links between the qualitative and quantitative aspects of scenario analysis, addressing uncertainties especially surprise, addressing scenario diversity and their consistency together, communicating scenarios including visualization methods, and linking scenarios to decision making.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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