Can syndromic surveillance data detect local outbreaks of communicable disease? A model using a historical cryptosporidiosis outbreak
| Autor: | Gillian Smith, Neville Q. Verlander, D. L. Cooper, Andre Charlett, E. Gerard, Sarah J. O'Brien, L. Willocks |
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| Rok vydání: | 2005 |
| Předmět: |
Diarrhea
medicine.medical_specialty Surveillance data Epidemiology Cryptosporidiosis Disease Outbreaks Correspondence medicine Humans Protozoal disease Communicable disease Warning system business.industry Data Collection Public health Outbreak Syndrome History 20th Century Models Theoretical medicine.disease United Kingdom Surgery Infectious Diseases Helpline Communicable Disease Control Public Health Medical emergency business Sentinel Surveillance Research Article |
| Zdroj: | Epidemiology and Infection. 134:13-20 |
| ISSN: | 1469-4409 0950-2688 |
| Popis: | SUMMARYA national UK surveillance system currently uses data from a health helpline (NHS Direct) in an attempt to provide early warning of a bio-terrorist attack, or an outbreak caused by a more common infection. To test this syndromic surveillance system we superimposed data from a historical outbreak of cryptosporidiosis onto a statistical model of NHS Direct call data. We modelled whether calls about diarrhoea (a proxy for cryptosporidiosis) exceeded a statistical threshold, thus alerting the surveillance team to the outbreak. On the date that the public health team were first notified of the outbreak our model predicted a 4% chance of detection when we assumed that one-twentieth of cryptosporidiosis cases telephoned the helpline. This rose to a 72% chance when we assumed nine-tenths of cases telephoned. The NHS Direct surveillance system is currently unlikely to detect an event similar to the cryptosporidiosis outbreak used here and may be most suited to detecting more widespread rises in syndromes in the community, as previously demonstrated. However, the expected rise in NHS Direct call rates, should improve early warning of outbreaks using call data. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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