Global phosphorus supply chain dynamics : Assessing regional impact to 2050
| Autor: | Claudiu-Eduard Nedelciu, Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir, Ingrid Stjernquist, P. Schlyter |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Jarðvísindadeild (HÍ), Faculty of Earth Sciences (UI), Verkfræði- og náttúruvísindasvið (HÍ), School of Engineering and Natural Sciences (UI), Háskóli Íslands, University of Iceland |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Áburður
Latin Americans 030309 nutrition & dietetics Natural resource economics Supply chain chemistry.chemical_element Phosphogypsum Article 03 medical and health sciences 0502 economics and business Production (economics) Population growth Safety Risk Reliability and Quality Fertilizers 0303 health sciences Food security Ecology Phosphorus 05 social sciences Miljövetenskap Regional System dynamics modelling chemistry 13. Climate action Fosfór Environmental science 050202 agricultural economics & policy Fólksfjölgun Fæðuöryggi Eutrophication Safety Research Environmental Sciences Food Science |
| Zdroj: | Global Food Security |
| Popis: | Publisher's version (útgefin grein) Phosphorus (P) availability is essential for global food security. A system dynamics model running from 1961 to 2050 was built for this study, linking global P supply to social, economic and environmental dynamics at regional level. Simulation results show that phosphate rock (PR) production needs to double by 2050 compared to present levels, in order to match regional P requirements. South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa are regions highly dependent on phosphate imports, yet it is here that most of the population growth and future P requirement will occur. Climate impact, eutrophication and phosphogypsum production are some of the main negative environmental dynamics that are becoming increasingly challenging in the coming decades. The authors are thankful to Dr. Salim Belyazid at the Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, for his invaluable insights into the conceptualization of this model. This article is part of Adaptation to a new economic reality (AdaptEconII) Marie Curie Innovative Training Network, funded by the European Commission (H2020-MSCA ITN-2015, Grant No. 675153 ). The European Commission support for the production of this publication does not constitute an endorsement of the contents, which reflects the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. This work was also supported by Stockholm University [Carl Mannerfelt Fond stipend 2020] and the Swedish Society for Anthropology and Geography [SSAG scholarship 2020]. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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