Scientific Reports
| Autor: | Louie Hong Yao, Ruslan I. Mukhamadiarov, Shannon R. Serrao, Riya Nandi, Priyanka, Shengfeng Deng, Uwe C. Täuber |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
Physics - Physics and Society 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) q-bio.PE Computer science Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Science Physical Distancing Biophysics FOS: Physical sciences infectious disease spreading Diseases Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) stochastic spatial SIR model Communicable Diseases Article 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine epidemic resurgence Humans Epidemics Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution Multidisciplinary physics.soc-ph Physics Social distance social distancing Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) COVID-19 Outbreak 030104 developmental biology FOS: Biological sciences Communicable Disease Control Epidemic outbreak Medicine Covid-19 030217 neurology & neurosurgery Demography |
| Zdroj: | Scientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021) Scientific Reports |
| ISSN: | 2045-2322 |
| Popis: | Once an epidemic outbreak has been effectively contained through non-pharmaceutical interventions, a safe protocol is required for the subsequent release of social distancing restrictions to prevent a disastrous resurgence of the infection. We report individual-based numerical simulations of stochastic susceptible-infectious-recovered model variants on four distinct spatially organized lattice and network architectures wherein contact and mobility constraints are implemented. We robustly find that the intensity and spatial spread of the epidemic recurrence wave can be limited to a manageable extent provided release of these restrictions is delayed sufficiently (for a duration of at least thrice the time until the peak of the unmitigated outbreak) and long-distance connections are maintained on a low level (limited to less than five percent of the overall connectivity). 6 figures in main text, 4 more in supplementary materials; to appear in Scientific Reports |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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