THE DYNAMICS OF STAGNATION: A PANEL ANALYSIS OF THE ONSET AND CONTINUATION OF STAGNATION

Autor: Denis de Crombrugghe, Richard Bluhm, Adam Szirmai
Přispěvatelé: RS: UNU-MERIT Theme 3, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, QE Econometrics, RS: GSBE EFME, RS: FSE MGSoG
Rok vydání: 2016
Předmět:
COUNTRIES
Inflation
CRISES
Economics and Econometrics
Dynamic Panel Data
onset of stagnation
media_common.quotation_subject
o47 - "Measurement of Economic Growth
Aggregate Productivity
Cross-Country Output Convergence"
INITIAL CONDITIONS PROBLEM
Economic stagnation
Monetary economics
Institutions
and Growth
o00 - Economic Development
Continuation
Dewey Decimal Classification::300 | Sozialwissenschaften
Soziologie
Anthropologie::330 | Wirtschaft
Exchange rate
Measurement of Economic Growth
Cross-Country Output Convergence
Economic inequality
DATA MODELS
economic stagnation
0502 economics and business
ddc:330
Openness to experience
Economics
050207 economics
o00 - Economic Development
Technological Change
and Growth
050205 econometrics
media_common
Differential impact
INCOME INEQUALITY
05 social sciences
Technological Change
Panel analysis
Stagnation
GROWTH
Economic Development
Growth Collapses
SYSTEM
continuation of stagnation
Zdroj: Macroeconomic Dynamics 20 (2016), Nr. 8
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 20(8), 2010-2045. Cambridge University Press
ISSN: 1469-8056
1365-1005
DOI: 10.1017/s1365100515000231
Popis: This paper analyzes periods of economic stagnation in a panel of countries. We test whether stagnation can be predicted by institutional characteristics and political shocks and compare the impacts of such variables with those of traditional macroeconomic variables. We examine the determinants of stagnation episodes using dynamic linear and nonlinear models. In addition, we analyze whether the effects of the included variables on the onset of stagnation differ from their effects on the continuation of stagnation. We find that inflation, negative regime changes, real exchange rate undervaluation, financial openness, and trade openness have significant effects on both the onset and the continuation of stagnation. Only for trade openness is there robust evidence of a differential impact. Open economies have a significantly lower probability of falling into stagnation, but once in stagnation they do not recover faster.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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