Assessment of forecasting models for patients arrival at Emergency Department
Autor: | M. Teresa T. Monteiro, Miguel Carvalho-Silva, Filipe de Sá-Soares, Sónia Dória-Nóbrega |
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Přispěvatelé: | Universidade do Minho |
Jazyk: | angličtina |
Rok vydání: | 2018 |
Předmět: |
Optimization
Custos de Cuidados de Saúde Health costs Science & Technology business.industry Emergency department Medicine (miscellaneous) 030208 emergency & critical care medicine Management Science and Operations Research 3. Good health 03 medical and health sciences Previsões 0302 clinical medicine Serviço de Urgência Hospitalar General Health Professions Life expectancy Medicine Operations management 030212 general & internal medicine Autoregressive integrated moving average Evaluation period Forecasting models business |
Zdroj: | Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal (RCAAP) instacron:RCAAP |
Popis: | The unpredictability of arrivals to the Emergency Department (ED) of a hospital is a great concern of the management. The existence of more complex pathologies and the increase in life expectancy originate a higher rate of hospitalization. The hospitalization of patients via ED upsets previously programmed services and some cancellations may occur. The Hospital's ability to predict turnout variations in the arrivals to the ED is fundamental to the management of the human resources and the required number of beds.Braga Hospital, in Portugal, is the subject of this work. Data for ED arrivals in 2 years (2012-2013), the test period, was studied and forecasting models based on time series were built. The models were then tested against the real data from the evaluation period (2014). These models are of ARIMA (AutoRegressive-Integrated-Moving Average) type, used software was the Forecast Pro. This work was supported by The Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT)- Monteiro by the ALGORITMI R&D Center and project PEST-OE/EEI/UI0319/2014. The authors are very grateful to the Hospital de Braga - Escala Braga, Sociedade Gestora do Estabelecimento, S. A.,for providing the data. info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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