Optimal Time-Inconsistent Beliefs: Misplanning, Procrastination, and Commitment
| Autor: | Markus K. Brunnermeier, Filippos Papakonstantinou, Jonathan A. Parker |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
preference for commitment
Strategy and Management media_common.quotation_subject optimal beliefs 050109 social psychology Computer Science::Artificial Intelligence Management Science and Operations Research time-inconsistent preferences Structural theory chemistry.chemical_compound planning fallacy Nonlinear Sciences::Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems Time-inconsistent preferences Optimism 0502 economics and business 0501 psychology and cognitive sciences 050207 economics media_common Actuarial science Planning fallacy 05 social sciences Procrastination Time optimal optimism chemistry Time consistency time-inconsistent beliefs procrastination Psychology Social psychology |
| Zdroj: | Brunnermeier, M, Papakonstantinou, F & Parker, J 2017, ' Optimal Time-Inconsistent Beliefs: Misplanning, Procrastination, and Commitment ', MANAGEMENT SCIENCE, vol. 63, no. 5, pp. 1318-1340 . https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2015.2360 |
| DOI: | 10.1287/mnsc.2015.2360 |
| Popis: | We develop a structural theory of beliefs and behavior that relaxes the assumption of time consistency in beliefs. Our theory is based on the trade-off between optimism, which raises anticipatory utility, and objectivity, which promotes efficient actions. We present it in the context of allocating work on a project over time, develop testable implications to contrast it with models assuming time-inconsistent preferences, and compare its predictions to existing evidence on behavior and beliefs. Our predictions are that (i) optimal beliefs are optimistic and time inconsistent; (ii) people optimally exhibit the planning fallacy; (iii) incentives for rapid task completion make beliefs more optimistic and worsen work smoothing, whereas incentives for accurate duration prediction make beliefs less optimistic and improve work smoothing; (iv) without a commitment device, beliefs become less optimistic over time; and (v) in the presence of a commitment device, beliefs may become more optimistic over time, and people optimally exhibit preference for commitment. This paper was accepted by Neng Wang, finance. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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