Tiered social distancing policies and epidemic control
| Autor: | Pierre-Alexandre Bliman, Alessio Carrozzo-Magli, Alberto d’Onofrio, Piero Manfredi |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Modelling and Analysis for Medical and Biological Applications (MAMBA), Inria de Paris, Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Laboratoire Jacques-Louis Lions (LJLL (UMR_7598)), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), University of Bologna/Università di Bologna, Dipartimento di Matematica e Geoscienze [Trieste], Università degli studi di Trieste = University of Trieste, Institut Camille Jordan (ICJ), École Centrale de Lyon (ECL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon (INSA Lyon), Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne (UJM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Economics and Management [Pisa], University of Pisa - Università di Pisa, Bliman, P. -A., Carrozzo-Magli, A., D'Onofrio, A., Manfredi, P. |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2022 |
| Předmět: |
General Mathematics
[MATH.MATH-DS]Mathematics [math]/Dynamical Systems [math.DS] tiered system General Engineering tiered systems social distancing behavioural epidemiology of infectious diseases General Physics and Astronomy COVID-19 governmental responses epidemic activity index [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie governmental response |
| Zdroj: | Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2023, 478 (2268), ⟨10.1098/rspa.2022.0175⟩ |
| ISSN: | 1364-5021 1471-2946 |
| DOI: | 10.1098/rspa.2022.0175⟩ |
| Popis: | International audience; Tiered social distancing policies have been adopted by many governments to mitigate the harmful consequences of COVID-19. Such policies have a number of well-established features i.e., they are short-term, adaptive (to the changing epidemiological conditions), and based on a multiplicity of indicators of the prevailing epidemic activity. Here, we use ideas from Behavioural Epidemiology to represent tiered policies in an SEIRS model by using a composite information index including multiple indicators of current and past epidemic activity mimicking those used by governments during the COVID-19 pandemic, such as transmission intensity, infection incidence and hospitals' occupancy. In its turn, the dynamics of the information index is assumed to endogenously inform the governmental social distancing interventions. The resulting model is described by a hereditary system showing a noteworthy property i.e., a dependency of the endemic levels of epidemiological variables from initial conditions. This is a consequence of the need to normalise the different indicators to pool them into a single index. Simulations suggest a rich spectrum of possible results. These include policy suggestions and identify pitfalls and undesired outcomes, such as a worsening of epidemic control, that can arise following such types of approaches to epidemic responses. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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