Woody-biomass projections and drivers of change in sub-Saharan Africa
Autor: | L. Prihodko, Wenjie Ji, Niall P. Hanan, Qiuyan Yu, C. Wade Ross, J. Anchang |
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Rok vydání: | 2021 |
Předmět: |
0303 health sciences
Biomass (ecology) 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Land use Agroforestry Climate change Vegetation Environmental Science (miscellaneous) 01 natural sciences Article 03 medical and health sciences Disturbance (ecology) parasitic diseases Environmental science Population growth Ecosystem sense organs Fire ecology Social Sciences (miscellaneous) 030304 developmental biology 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
Zdroj: | Nature climate change |
ISSN: | 1758-6798 1758-678X |
DOI: | 10.1038/s41558-021-01034-5 |
Popis: | Africa’s ecosystems have an important role in global carbon dynamics, yet consensus is lacking regarding the amount of carbon stored in woody vegetation and the potential impacts to carbon storage in response to changes in climate, land use and other Anthropocene risks. In this study, we explore the socioenvironmental conditions that have shaped the contemporary distribution of woody vegetation across sub-Saharan Africa and evaluate ecosystem response to multiple scenarios of climate change, anthropogenic pressures and fire disturbance. Our projections suggest climate change will have a small but negative effect on above-ground woody biomass at the continental scale, and the compounding effects of population growth, increasing human pressures and socioclimatic-driven changes in fire behaviour further exacerbate climate-driven trends. Relatively modest continental-scale trends obscure much larger regional perturbations, with climatic and anthropogenic factors leading to increased carbon storage potential in East Africa, offset by large deficits in West, Central and Southern Africa. The amount of carbon stored in African ecosystems and how climate change will affect this is uncertain. Projections indicate that carbon storage will increase in East Africa, climate change will have an overall negative impact on woody biomass and that other human pressures will amplify the trend. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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