Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of ichthyoplankton in the Yangtze Estuary, China
| Autor: | Zhixin Zhang, Weiwei Xian, Hui Zhang, Stefano Mammola |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Finnish Museum of Natural History, Zoology |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
0106 biological sciences
habitat suitability climate change responses Range (biology) ACCURACY Species distribution Climate change 010603 evolutionary biology 01 natural sciences VALIDATION ensemble forecasting Abundance (ecology) AREAS PHENOLOGY WATER 14. Life underwater 1172 Environmental sciences Ecology Evolution Behavior and Systematics geography distribution range shifts geography.geographical_feature_category biology LARVAE Ecology 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology Estuary PERFORMANCE 15. Life on land Ichthyoplankton biology.organism_classification species distribution modelling Environmental niche modelling Larimichthys polyactis fish larvae 13. Climate action SAMPLE-SIZE 1181 Ecology evolutionary biology Environmental science ABUNDANCE FISHES |
| Zdroj: | Diversity and distributions (2020). doi:10.1111/ddi.13002 info:cnr-pdr/source/autori:Zhang, Zhixin; Mammola, Stefano; Xian, Weiwei; Zhang, Hui/titolo:Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of ichthyoplankton in the Yangtze Estuary, China/doi:10.1111%2Fddi.13002/rivista:Diversity and distributions (Print)/anno:2020/pagina_da:/pagina_a:/intervallo_pagine:/volume |
| DOI: | 10.1111/ddi.13002 |
| Popis: | Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) are an effective tool to explore the potential distribution of terrestrial, freshwater and marine organisms; however, SDMs have been seldom used to model ichthyoplankton distributions, and thus, our understanding of how larval stages of fishes will respond to climate change is still limited. Here, we developed SDMs to explore potential impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of ichthyoplankton. Location Yangtze Estuary, China. Methods Using long-term ichthyoplankton survey data and a large set of marine predictor variables, we developed ensemble SDMs for five abundant ichthyoplankton species in the Yangtze Estuary (Coilia mystus, Hypoatherina valenciennei, Larimichthys polyactis, Salanx ariakensis and Chelidonichthys spinosus). Then, we projected their habitat suitability under present and future climate conditions. Results The ensemble SDMs had good predictive performance and were successful in estimating the known distributions of the five species. Model projections highlighted two contrasting patterns of response to future climates: while C. mystus will likely expand its range, the ranges of the other four species will likely contract and shift northward. Main conclusions According to our SDM projections, the five ichthyoplankton species that we tested in the Yangtze Estuary are likely to respond differently to future climate changes. These projected different responses seemingly reflect the differential functional attributes and life-history strategies of these species. To the extent that climate change emerges as a critical driver of the future distribution of these species, our findings provide an important roadmap for designing future conservation strategies for ichthyoplankton in this region. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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