Out-migration and economic cycles

Autor: Francesco Magris, Daniel Mirza, Rémi Bazillier
Přispěvatelé: Bazillier, R., Magris, F., Mirza, D., Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne (CES), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [UMR7322] (LEO), Université d'Orléans (UO)-Université de Tours (UT)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Tours (UT), Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII), Centre d'analyse stratégique, Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans (LEO), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Tours-Université d'Orléans (UO), Université de Tours
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2017
Předmět:
Labour economics
JEL: F - International Economics/F.F2 - International Factor Movements and International Business/F.F2.F22 - International Migration
media_common.quotation_subject
Outflows
Business cycle
Destinations
0502 economics and business
European integration
Economics
Unemployment rate
050207 economics
Foreign national
Migration
050205 econometrics
media_common
Migration Outflows
05 social sciences
1. No poverty
JEL: O - Economic Development
Innovation
Technological Change
and Growth/O.O1 - Economic Development/O.O1.O15 - Human Resources • Human Development • Income Distribution • Migration
[SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance
Country of origin
JEL: J - Labor and Demographic Economics/J.J6 - Mobility
Unemployment
Vacancies
and Immigrant Workers/J.J6.J61 - Geographic Labor Mobility • Immigrant Workers
High unemployment
8. Economic growth
Unemployment
General Economics
Econometrics and Finance
Zdroj: Review of World Economics
Review of World Economics, Springer Verlag, 2017, 153 (1), pp.39-69. ⟨10.1007/s10290-016-0267-8⟩
ISSN: 1610-2878
1610-2886
DOI: 10.1007/s10290-016-0267-8⟩
Popis: International audience; Out-migration concerns foreigners who decide to leave a country where they used to live. Taking advantage of the OECD bilateral IMS database, we analyze the short-run determinants of out-migration using a panel of Schengen countries between 1995 and 2011. We find that out-migration is counter-cyclical: foreign nationals tend to leave host countries with high unemployment, while they are likelier to stay in good times (i.e. low unemployment). Typically, a 10 % increase in the unemployment rate leads to a 5 % increase in out-migration. Thus, short-term economic fluctuations have the same qualitative effect as restrictive migration policies in economic downturns. However, we find mixed evidence for the role of economic cycles in the potential destination countries of those flows. Movers appear to be sensitive to unemployment changes in their country of origin, but they do not seem to be sensitive to business cycles in potential destinations.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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