Spanish scleroderma risk score (RESCLESCORE) to predict 15-year all-cause mortality in scleroderma patients at the time of diagnosis based on the RESCLE cohort: Derivation and internal validation
| Autor: | Xavier Pla Salas, Ana Belén Madroñero Vuelta, Cristina Gonzalez-Echavarri, Mayka Freire, Isaac Pons Martín Del Campo, María Esther Sánchez García, A.J. Chamorro, Francisco Hernandez, José Antonio Vargas Hitos, Norberto Ortego-Centeno, Luis Sáez Comet, Sabela Sánchez Trigo, Xavier Corbella, José Antonio Todolí Parra, Alfredo Guillén-Del-Castillo, Juan José Ríos Blanco, Dolores Colunga Argüelles, Isabel Perales Fraile, Rafael Ángel Fernández de la Puebla Giménez, Mónica Rodríguez Carballeira, Carles Tolosa Vilella, Manuel Ruiz Muñoz, Gerard Espinosa, Andrés González García, Adela Marín Ballvé, Luis Trapiella Martínez, Manuel Rubio-Rivas, Vicent Fonollosa Pla, David Bernal Bello, Carmen Pilar Simeón Aznar, A. Argibay |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
Male medicine.medical_specialty Multivariate analysis Immunology Scleroderma Cohort Studies 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Internal medicine Statistical significance Cause of Death Risk of mortality medicine Immunology and Allergy Humans Derivation Registries Internal validation Aged 030203 arthritis & rheumatology Framingham Risk Score Scleroderma Systemic business.industry Reproducibility of Results Raynaud Disease Middle Aged medicine.disease Prognosis 030104 developmental biology Spain Cohort Female business |
| Zdroj: | Autoimmunity reviews. 19(5) |
| ISSN: | 1873-0183 |
| Popis: | A few scores predicting the short-term risk of mortality in Systemic sclerosis (SSc) have been reported to date. Our study aimed to create a predictive 15-year all-cause mortality score at the time of the diagnosis of SSc. The study was based on the Spanish Scleroderma Registry (RESCLE). The cohort was split up in derivation (DC) and validation cohort (VC). A multivariate analysis to detect variables related to all-cause mortality within the first 15 years from SSc diagnosis was performed, assigning points to the rounded beta values to create the score (RESCLESCORE). 1935 SSc patients were included. The variables in the final model were as follows: age at diagnosis (+2 points > 65 years-old), male gender (+1 point), lcSSc subset (−1 point), mode of onset other than Raynaud's (+1 point), cancer (+1 point) and visceral involvement, such as ILD (+1 point), PAH (+1 point), heart (+1 point) and renal involvement (+2 points). Autoantibodies did not achieve statistical significance in the multivariate analysis. The 3 categories of risk to predict 15-year all-cause mortality at the time of diagnosis were as follows: low risk (5% vs. 7%, p = .189), intermediate risk (26.5% vs. 25.5%, p = .911) and high risk (47.8% vs. 59%, p = .316). The AUC was 0.799 (DC) vs. 0.778 (VC) (p = .530). In conclusion, the RESCLESCORE demonstrated an excellent ability to categorize SSc patients at the time of diagnosis in separate 15-year all-cause mortality risk strata at the time of diagnosis. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
Full Text from ScienceDirect