Numerical Simulation of Wind Wave using Ensemble Forecast Wave Model: A Case Study of Typhoon Lingling
| Autor: | Hyung Suk Kim, Sang-Myeong Oh, Min Roh, Pil-Hun Chang |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Mean squared error Meteorology Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering VM1-989 Ocean Engineering GC1-1581 Oceanography 01 natural sciences Wave model Wind wave ensemble spread Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Lingling 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Water Science and Technology Civil and Structural Engineering Computer simulation Ensemble forecasting 010505 oceanography Typhoon probability verification Environmental science Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) ensemble wave model Significant wave height Lead time Ensemble Prediction System for Global (EPSG) |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Vol 9, Iss 475, p 475 (2021) Journal of Marine Science and Engineering Volume 9 Issue 5 |
| ISSN: | 2077-1312 |
| Popis: | A wave forecast numerical simulation was performed for Typhoon Lingling around the Korean Peninsula and in the East Asia region using sea winds from 24 members produced by the Ensemble Prediction System for Global (EPSG) of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Significant wave height was observed by the ocean data buoys used to verify data of the ensemble wave model, and the results of the ensemble members were analyzed through probability verification. The forecast performance for the significant wave height improved by approximately 18% in the root mean square error in the three-day lead time compared to that of the deterministic model, and the difference in performance was particularly distinct towards mid-to-late lead times. The ensemble spread was relatively appropriate, even in the longer lead time, and each ensemble model runs were all stable. As a result of the probability verification, information on the uncertainty that could not be provided in the deterministic model could be obtained. It was found that all the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were 0.9 or above, demonstrating good predictive performance, and the ensemble wave model is expected to be useful in identifying and determining hazardous weather conditions. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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