Cancer in Iran 2008 to 2025: Recent incidence trends and short-term predictions of the future burden
| Autor: | Gohar Mohammadi, Mehraban Shahi, Elisabete Weiderpass, Mehdi Pabaghi, Abbas Rezaianzadeh, Kazem Alizadeh-Barzian, Bahman Rashidpoor, Sharareh Niksiar, Rita Motidost-komleh, Ali Morsali, Ali Ghanbari-Motlagh, Maryam Kooshki, Mahdi Jahantigh, Maboobeh Narooei, Khadijeh Rezaei, Majid Yaghoubi-ashrafi, Athareh Shahdadi, Amir Rahnama, Roya Sherafati, Fereshteh Salavati, Abbas Aghaei, Jila Fakhery, Susan Hasanpour-Heidari, Hosein Hoseini-hoshyar, Masoud Davanlou, Mohammad Salehifar, Soheyla Azami, Fatemeh Ghasemi-Kebria, Kazem Zendehdel, Mostafa Khoshaabi, Noorali Asgari, Elham Partovipour, Zahra Ravankhah, Kimia Aryan, Ali Soleimani, Jacques Ferlay, Seyed-Mehrdad Jazayeri, Marziyeh Khanloghi, Ghasem Janbabaei, Hajar Gholami, Mohammad-Hossein Somi, Reza Malekzadeh, Mohsen Izadi, Alireza Raeisi, Solmaz Farrokhzad, Freddie Bray, Hakimeh Abadi, Gita Pourshahi, Hosein Mohammadifar, Mansooreh Fateh, Amineh Madani, Ali Ghasemi, Maryam Khajavi, Seyed-Vahid Ahmadi-Tabatabaei, Mohsen Farmahini Farahani, Mohammad Nasiri, Hossein Poustchi, Yasaman Mojtahedzadeh, Tahereh Mousavi, Gholamreza Roshandel, Azadeh Pournajaf, Zeinab Moinfar, Ahmad Jalilvand, Gholamreza Sadeghi, Maryam Soltany-hojatabad, Floria Enferadi, Afshin Ostovar, Habibollah Pirnejad, Arash Golpazir, Maryam Khalednejad, Yasan Kazemzadeh, Masoumeh Eslami-Nasab, Maria Cheraghi, Alireza Sadjadi, Fereshteh Asgari, Farrokh Sharifi-Moghaddam, Narjes Hazar, Sohrab Yadolahi, Mahdi Mirheidari, Aliakbar Zareiyan, Abbasali Asgari |
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| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Adult
Male Cancer Research Palliative care Time Factors Adolescent Colorectal cancer Population 03 medical and health sciences Young Adult 0302 clinical medicine Neoplasms medicine Humans Registries education Child Aged Aged 80 and over education.field_of_study Cancer prevention Models Statistical business.industry Incidence (epidemiology) Incidence Age Factors Infant Newborn Cancer Infant Middle Aged medicine.disease Prognosis Cancer registry Oncology Demographic change 030220 oncology & carcinogenesis Child Preschool Female business Demography Follow-Up Studies |
| Zdroj: | International journal of cancerREFERENCES. 149(3) |
| ISSN: | 1097-0215 |
| Popis: | Policymakers require estimates of the future number of cancer patients in order to allocate finite resources to cancer prevention, treatment and palliative care. We examine recent cancer incidence trends in Iran and present predicted incidence rates and new cases for the entire country for the year 2025. We developed a method for approximating population-based incidence from the pathology-based data series available nationally for the years 2008 to 2013, and augmented this with data from the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry (INPCR) for the years 2014 to 2016. We fitted time-linear age-period models to the recent incidence trends to quantify the future cancer incidence burden to the year 2025, delineating the contribution of changes due to risk and those due to demographic change. The number of new cancer cases is predicted to increase in Iran from 112 000 recorded cases in 2016 to an estimated 160 000 in 2025, a 42.6 increase, of which 13.9 and 28.7 were attributed to changes in risk and population structure, respectively. In terms of specific cancers, the greatest increases in cases are predicted for thyroid (113.8), prostate (66.7), female breast (63.0) and colorectal cancer (54.1). Breast, colorectal and stomach cancers were the most common cancers in Iran in 2016 and are predicted to remain the leading cancers nationally in 2025. The increasing trends in incidence of most common cancers in Iran reinforce the need for the tailored design and implementation of effective national cancer control programs across the country. © 2021 Union for International Cancer Control. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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