Does time series analysis confirms the relationship between space weather effects and the failures of electrical grids in South Poland?

Autor: Marek Siluszyk, Szczepan Moskwa, Sylwia Zakrzewska, Anna Wawrzynczak, Agnieszka Siluszyk, Agnieszka Gil, Renata Modzelewska
Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2019
Předmět:
Zdroj: Journal of Mathematics in Industry, Vol 9, Iss 1, Pp 1-16 (2019)
ISSN: 2190-5983
Popis: Nowadays, when the global and national industry is addicted from various electrical and electronic equipment at a very high level, it is of a special interest to understand the possible origins of the interruptions in the electricity supply. Failures in ground-based electrical and electronic systems, or disturbances of satellites operation caused by influential magnetic storms initiated by the changeable Sun can have a high economic impact on the industry. These strong magnetic storms are triggered by solar-driven disturbances in interplanetary space. Studies of these phenomena have gained a special attention since the incident that had occurred in northern Canada in March 1989. During this event the work of the hydroelectric plant in the region of Quebec was blocked for long, winter hours and many citizens of this region of Canada suffered from a blackout. Analysis performed in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory showed that if that blackout have had taken place in the USA then costs generated only by a not supplied electricity could even reach 6 billion USD. In our paper, we apply time series and statistical analysis tools, i.e. superposed epoch analysis and Wilcoxon Matched Pairs Test, for a large set of data, among them: 4625 failures of electrical grids in southern Poland in 2010, from the total number of 25,616, and 10,656 in the first seven months of 2014, from the total number of 30,155. We investigate only those failures which might be connected with the above described effects. We analyze data of breakdowns with unidentified reasons, as well as failures connected to the aging and electronic devices breakdowns, which occurred during the periods of an increased geomagnetic activity. Based on the data from The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute we eliminate from the consideration those failures which had meteorological grounds. Our analysis shows the usefulness of these mathematical tools in such a vital for the global and national industry issue, as well, that powerful phenomena of solar origin, somewhat disturbed in 2010 and January–July 2014 the electrical grids productivity in southern Poland.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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