Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe
| Autor: | Enikö Magyari, Castor Muñoz Sobrino, Saskia Kuiper, Emiliya P. Kirilova, H. John B. Birks, Oliver Heiri, Heikki Seppä, Jenny E. Watson, Hans Renssen, André F. Lotter, Wim Z. Hoek, Alan Bedford, Mónika Tóth, Laurent Millet, Leeli Amon, Barbara Lang, Morten Fischer Mortensen, Willy Tinner, Elizabeth S. Jeffers, F. Verbruggen, Stéphanie Samartin, Emmy I. Lammertsma, Boris P. Ilyashuk, Siim Veski, Nelleke Van Asch, Spassimir Tonkov, Stephen J. Brooks, Hilary H. Birks, Marjolein Hazekamp |
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| Přispěvatelé: | Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien (LED), Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis (UP8), Transport Research Laboratory, TRL, Department of Medical Biochemistry, University of Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (UvA), Laboratoire Chrono-environnement - CNRS - UBFC (UMR 6249) (LCE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Franche-Comté (UFC), Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] (UBFC)-Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] (UBFC), Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Department of Biology, Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Department of Science Education [Copenhagen], Faculty of Science [Copenhagen], University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (KU)-University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (KU), Palaeoecology, Institute of Environmental Biology, Utrecht University [Utrecht], Earth and Climate, Amsterdam Global Change Institute, Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands, Laboratoire Chrono-environnement - UFC (UMR 6249) (LCE), Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] (UBFC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Franche-Comté (UFC), University of Oxford [Oxford]-University of Oxford [Oxford], Jet Propulsion Laboratory ( JPL ), NASA-California Institute of Technology ( CALTECH ), Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien ( LED ), Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis ( UP8 ), University of Amsterdam [Amsterdam] ( UvA ), Laboratoire Chrono-environnement ( LCE ), Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté ( UBFC ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Université de Franche-Comté ( UFC ), Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research ( OCCR ), Department of Science Education, University of Copenhagen ( KU ) |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2014 |
| Předmět: |
010506 paleontology
Multidisciplinary 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Meteorology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes General Physics and Astronomy Climate change General Chemistry 01 natural sciences General Biochemistry Genetics and Molecular Biology Article [ SDE.MCG ] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes 13. Climate action General Circulation Model Climatology SDG 13 - Climate Action Environmental science Common spatial pattern Climate model Glacial period Holocene ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Nature Communications Nature Communications, Nature Publishing Group, 2014, 5, pp.4914. ⟨10.1038/ncomms5914⟩ Nature Communications, 5:4914. Nature Publishing Group Nature communications Heiri, O, Brooks, S J, Renssen, H, Bedford, A, Hazekamp, M, Ilyashuk, B, Jeffers, E S, Lang, B, Kirilova, E, Kuiper, S, Millet, L, Samartin, S, Toth, M, Verbruggen, F, Watson, J E, van Asch, N, Lammertsma, E, Amon, L, Birks, H H, Birks, H J B, Mortensen, M F, Hoek, W Z, Magyari, E, Muñoz Sobrino, C, Seppa, H, Tinner, W, Tonkov, S, Veski, S & Lotter, A F 2014, ' Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe ', Nature Communications, vol. 5, 4914 . https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms5914 30, Herie, O, Mortensen, M F & Brooks, S J 2014, ' Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature changes for late-glacial Europe ', Nature Communications, no. 5, 4914 . https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms5914 Nature Communications, Nature Publishing Group, 2014, 5, pp.4914. 〈10.1038/ncomms5914〉 |
| ISSN: | 2041-1723 |
| DOI: | 10.1038/ncomms5914⟩ |
| Popis: | Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized palaeoclimate data sets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth's recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based palaeotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our palaeotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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