Development of risk-based trading farm scoring system to assist with the control of bovine tuberculosis in cattle in England and Wales
| Autor: | S.H. Downs, Jennifer M. Broughan, Robin R. L. Simons, Richard P. Smith, Adam Brouwer, R. Kosmider, Amie Adkin, Mark Arnold |
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| Rok vydání: | 2015 |
| Předmět: |
040301 veterinary sciences
animal diseases Cost-Benefit Analysis 030231 tropical medicine Biosecurity Transportation Logistic regression Risk Assessment 0403 veterinary science 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Food Animals Environmental health Prevalence Animals Animal Husbandry Actuarial science Framingham Risk Score Wales Cost–benefit analysis Commerce 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences Odds ratio Animal husbandry Geography England Herd Animal Science and Zoology Cattle Risk assessment Tuberculosis Bovine |
| Zdroj: | Preventive veterinary medicine. 123 |
| ISSN: | 1873-1716 |
| Popis: | Identifying and ranking cattle herds with a higher risk of being or becoming infected on known risk factors can help target farm biosecurity, surveillance schemes and reduce spread through animal trading. This paper describes a quantitative approach to develop risk scores, based on the probability of infection in a herd with bovine tuberculosis (bTB), to be used in a risk-based trading (RBT) scheme in England and Wales. To produce a practical scoring system the risk factors included need to be simple and quick to understand, sufficiently informative and derived from centralised national databases to enable verification and assess compliance. A logistic regression identified herd history of bTB, local bTB prevalence, herd size and movements of animals onto farms in batches from high risk areas as being significantly associated with the probability of bTB infection on farm. Risk factors were assigned points using the estimated odds ratios to weight them. The farm risk score was defined as the sum of these individual points yielding a range from 1 to 5 and was calculated for each cattle farm that was trading animals in England and Wales at the start of a year. Within 12 months, of those farms tested, 30.3% of score 5 farms had a breakdown (sensitivity). Of farms scoring 1-4 only 5.4% incurred a breakdown (1-specificity). The use of this risk scoring system within RBT has the potential to reduce infected cattle movements; however, there are cost implications in ensuring that the information underpinning any system is accurate and up to date. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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