Evaluating targeted interventions via meta-population models with multi-level mixing
| Autor: | Andrew N. Hill, John W. Glasser, Aaron T. Curns, Zhilan Feng |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
Statistics and Probability medicine.medical_specialty Meta population Article General Biochemistry Genetics and Molecular Biology 03 medical and health sciences Influenza Human Statistics Pandemic Econometrics medicine Humans Convex combination Generality General Immunology and Microbiology business.industry Applied Mathematics Public health Multilevel model Grandparent General Medicine Targeted interventions Models Theoretical 030104 developmental biology Modeling and Simulation Communicable Disease Control Multilevel Analysis General Agricultural and Biological Sciences business |
| Zdroj: | Mathematical Biosciences. 287:93-104 |
| ISSN: | 0025-5564 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.mbs.2016.09.013 |
| Popis: | Among the several means by which heterogeneity can be modeled, Levins’ (1969) meta-population approach preserves the most analytical tractability, a virtue to the extent that generality is desirable. When model populations are stratified, contacts among their respective sub-populations must be described. Using a simple meta-population model, Feng et al. (2015) showed that mixing among sub-populations, as well as heterogeneity in characteristics affecting sub-population reproduction numbers, must be considered when evaluating public health interventions to prevent or control infectious disease outbreaks. They employed the convex combination of preferential within- and proportional among-group contacts first described by Nold (1980) and subsequently generalized by Jacquez et al. (1988). As the utility of meta-population modeling depends on more realistic mixing functions, the authors added preferential contacts between parents and children and among co-workers (Glasser et al., 2012). Here they further generalize this function by including preferential contacts between grandparents and grandchildren, but omit workplace contacts. They also describe a general multi-level mixing scheme, provide three two-level examples, and apply two of them. In their first application, the authors describe age- and gender-specific patterns in face-to-face conversations (Mossong et al., 2008), proxies for contacts by which respiratory pathogens might be transmitted, that are consistent with everyday experience. This suggests that meta-population models with inter-generational mixing could be employed to evaluate prolonged school-closures, a proposed pandemic mitigation measure that could expose grandparents, and other elderly surrogate caregivers for working parents, to infectious children. In their second application, the authors use a meta-population SEIR model stratified by 7 age groups and 50 states plus the District of Columbia, to compare actual with optimal vaccination during the 2009–2010 influenza pandemic in the United States. They also show that vaccination efforts could have been adjusted month-to-month during the fall of 2009 to ensure maximum impact. Such applications inspire confidence in the reliability of meta-population modeling in support of public health policymaking. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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