Predicted COVID-19 fatality rates based on age, sex, comorbidities and health system capacity
| Autor: | Tillman von Carnap, Ingvild Almås, Jesse Heitner, Tessa Bold, Justin Sandefur, Selene Ghisolfi |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Male
Distribution (economics) Comorbidity Settore SECS-P/01 - ECONOMIA POLITICA Relative Odds Asia pacific Models System capacity Case fatality rate Viral Child Aged 80 and over lcsh:R5-920 Health Policy public health Statistical Middle Aged Geography Child Preschool Health Resources Female Coronavirus Infections lcsh:Medicine (General) Adult Adolescent Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pneumonia Viral lcsh:Infectious and parasitic diseases Betacoronavirus Young Adult Humans Vital registration lcsh:RC109-216 Preschool Pandemics Aged SARS Models Statistical SARS-CoV-2 business.industry Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health Infant Newborn COVID-19 Infant Pneumonia Newborn business Analysis Regional differences Demography |
| Zdroj: | BMJ Global Health, Vol 5, Iss 9 (2020) BMJ Global Health |
| ISSN: | 2059-7908 |
| Popis: | Early reports suggest the fatality rate from COVID-19 varies greatly across countries, but non-random testing and incomplete vital registration systems render it impossible to directly estimate the infection fatality rate (IFR) in many low- and middle-income countries. To fill this gap, we estimate the adjustments required to extrapolate estimates of the IFR from high- to lower-income regions. Accounting for differences in the distribution of age, sex, and relevant comorbidities yields substantial differences in the predicted IFR across 21 world regions, ranging from 0.11% in Western Sub-Saharan Africa to 0.95% for High Income Asia Pacific. However, these predictions must be treated as lower bounds, as they are grounded in fatality rates from countries with advanced health systems. In order to adjust for health system capacity, we incorporate regional differences in the relative odds of infection fatality from childhood influenza. This adjustment greatly diminishes, but does not entirely erase, the demography-based advantage predicted in the lowest income settings, with regional estimates of the predicted COVID-19 IFR ranging from 0.43% in Western Sub-Saharan Africa to 1.74% for Eastern Europe. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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