Tropical cyclone storm surge emulation around New Orleans
| Autor: | Simon Thomas, Dan(i) Jones, Talea Mayo, Devaraj Gopinathan |
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| Rok vydání: | 2023 |
| Zdroj: | XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) |
| Popis: | Storm surges can have devastating effects on coastal communities. These events, often caused by tropical cyclones, are difficult to simulate due to the challenging nature of process-based modelling and the relative paucity of data covering extreme tropical cyclone conditions. In order to make optimal use of existing physical models, we build an emulator to actively learn the relationship between tropical cyclone characteristics and maximum storm surge height.We used the ADCIRC physical storm surge model to simulate a series of representative tropical cyclones around New Orleans. These initial storms were sampled using Latin hypercube design, varying tropical cyclone characteristics such as the landfall speed, central pressure, and others. By running the ADCIRC model for each of these events, we were able to determine the maximum sea surface height caused by each simulated storm. Next, we trained a Gaussian process to fit the maximum sea levels at each point along the coast, given the tropical cyclones' characteristics as input. Through active learning, we iteratively selected additional tropical cyclones to further improve the emulator’s accuracy. Finally, we evaluated the model's performance using a held-out test set of idealised tropical cyclones.Our emulator approach allowed us to efficiently create a high-quality, low-cost statistical model that can potentially be used to predict the probability of future storm surge heights. By better understanding these sources of uncertainties, we can work towards more accurately assessing the potential impacts of future storms on coastal communities. The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023) |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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