Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries
Autor: | Majid Ezzati, Gianni Corsetti, Colin Mathers, Theo Rashid, Martin McKee, Robbie M. Parks, Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard, Mariachiara Di Cesare, James E. Bennett, Perviz Asaria, Marco Battaglini, Michel Guillot, Bin Zhou, Vasillis Kontis |
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Přispěvatelé: | Wellcome Trust |
Jazyk: | angličtina |
Rok vydání: | 2020 |
Předmět: |
0301 basic medicine
AMBIENT-TEMPERATURE medicine.medical_specialty Biochemistry & Molecular Biology EUROPE Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) DEATHS IMPACT Immunology Research & Experimental Medicine General Biochemistry Genetics and Molecular Biology 03 medical and health sciences 0302 clinical medicine Health care Epidemiology Pandemic medicine Social determinants of health 11 Medical and Health Sciences Cause of death Science & Technology business.industry Cell Biology General Medicine 3. Good health 030104 developmental biology Geography Medicine Research & Experimental 030220 oncology & carcinogenesis Preparedness WINTER business Developed country Life Sciences & Biomedicine Demography |
Zdroj: | Nature Medicine |
ISSN: | 1546-170X 1078-8956 |
DOI: | 10.1038/s41591-020-1112-0 |
Popis: | The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has changed many social, economic, environmental and healthcare determinants of health. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models to vital statistics data to estimate the all-cause mortality effect of the pandemic for 21 industrialized countries. From mid-February through May 2020, 206,000 (95% credible interval, 178,100-231,000) more people died in these countries than would have had the pandemic not occurred. The number of excess deaths, excess deaths per 100,000 people and relative increase in deaths were similar between men and women in most countries. England and Wales and Spain experienced the largest effect: ~100 excess deaths per 100,000 people, equivalent to a 37% (30-44%) relative increase in England and Wales and 38% (31-45%) in Spain. Bulgaria, New Zealand, Slovakia, Australia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Norway, Denmark and Finland experienced mortality changes that ranged from possible small declines to increases of 5% or less in either sex. The heterogeneous mortality effects of the COVID-19 pandemic reflect differences in how well countries have managed the pandemic and the resilience and preparedness of the health and social care system. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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