The German Climate Forecast System: GCFS
| Autor: | Helmuth Haak, Sebastian Brune, Claudia Gessner, Kristina Fröhlich, Barbara Früh, Katharina Isensee, Holger Pohlmann, Mikhail Dobrynin, Andreas Paxian, Johanna Baehr |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
010502 geochemistry & geophysics 01 natural sciences Earth system model development German lcsh:Oceanography Environmental Chemistry lcsh:GC1-1581 lcsh:Physical geography development 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Global and Planetary Change Earth‐system forecasts model seasonal language.human_language Earth system science Climatology Climate Forecast System language General Earth and Planetary Sciences Environmental science seasonal forecasts lcsh:GB3-5030 |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol 13, Iss 2, Pp n/a-n/a (2021) Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 13 (2) Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
| ISSN: | 1942-2466 |
| DOI: | 10.3929/ethz-b-000474309 |
| Popis: | Seasonal prediction is one important element in a seamless prediction chain between weather forecasts and climate projections. After several years of development in collaboration with Universität Hamburg and Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, the Deutscher Wetterdienst performs operational seasonal forecasts since 2016 with the German Climate Forecast System, now in Version 2 (GCFS2.0). Here, the configuration of the previous system GCFS1.0 and the current GCFS2.0 are described and the performance of the two systems is compared over the common hindcast period of 1990–2014. In GCFS2.0, the forecast skill is improved compared to GCFS1.0 during boreal winter, especially for the Northern Hemisphere where the Pearson correlation has increased for the North Atlantic Oscillation index. Overall, a similar performance of GCFS2.0 in comparison to GCFS1.0 is assessed during the boreal summer. Future developments for climate forecasts need a stronger focus on the performance of interannual variability in a model system. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 13 (2) ISSN:1942-2466 |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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