Підхід щодо врахування впливу несприятливих факторів на ефективність пошуково-рятувального забезпечення в операціях

Jazyk: angličtina
Rok vydání: 2021
Předmět:
Zdroj: Збірник наукових праць Харківського національного університету Повітряних Сил, Iss 3(69), Pp 88-93 (2021)
ISSN: 2518-1661
2073-7378
Popis: The article analyzes the factors influencing the assessment of the effectiveness of search and rescue support in the operations of large formations and groupings of forces (troops) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This type of support is implemented in special mathematical and software support for a complex of automation equipment for an aviation rescue operation. The implemented mathematical models describe only certain aspects of real processes or their idealized representations. For this, correction factors or expressions are introduced in the model. Their character is determined depending on various deviations of real conditions from idealized ones. If we study statistics, then the problem of predicting the degree of influence of unfavorable factors can be posed and solved under conditions of stochastic uncertainty. Such determination of the forecast values implies the introduction of a certain assumption. It consists in the fact that the set of factors that determined the statistical values of the degree of influence remains unchanged for the forecast period of time. With this assumption, long-term forecasting of the values of the degree of influence of factors cannot be considered satisfactory. If the researcher does not have statistics or it is limited, then predicting the values of the degree should be considered in terms of non-stochastic uncertainty. In these conditions, a reasonable approach is the use of expert assessment methods. The approach using fuzzy expert assessments of the influence of unfavorable factors and its implementation makes it possible to largely overcome the main problems in search and rescue operations in operations. A hierarchical model has been defined as a mathematical model for taking into account the influence of unfavorable factors on the effectiveness of search and rescue support in the operations of large formations and groupings of forces. It is based on fuzzy set theory. The proposed heuristic implementation of the fuzzy approach with a minimum number of term sets of linguistic variables allows one to obtain a result in conditions of limited initial data. This makes it possible to assess the influence of unfavorable factors on the effectiveness of search and rescue operations in conditions of uncertainty. The proposed approach and its implementation can serve as a basis for the further development of methods and techniques for assessing the effectiveness of search and rescue actions with a more flexible consideration of the influence of adverse factors.
Databáze: OpenAIRE