The future of coal investment, trade, and stranded assets
| Autor: | Johannes Trüby, Iain Staffell, Thomas Auger, Paul Balcombe |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC) |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
IMPACTS
Technology Energy & Fuels Commodity Materials Science Materials Science Multidisciplinary 02 engineering and technology International trade 010402 general chemistry 01 natural sciences SPATIALLY SEPARATED MARKETS RESOURCE Perfect competition Revenue Coal EMISSIONS Consumption (economics) Science & Technology business.industry Chemistry Physical 021001 nanoscience & nanotechnology Investment (macroeconomics) 0104 chemical sciences CLIMATE Chemistry General Energy EQUILIBRIUM Dominance (economics) Physical Sciences PHASE-OUT 0210 nano-technology business Divestment |
| Popis: | Summary Coal is at a crossroads, with divestment and phase-out in the West countered by the surging growth throughout Asia. Global energy scenarios suggest that coal consumption could halve over the next decade, but the business and geopolitical implications of this profound shift remain underexplored. We investigate coal markets to 2040 using a perfect competition techno-economic model. In a well-below-2°C scenario, Europe, North America, and Australia suffer from over-capacity, with one-third of today’s mines becoming stranded assets. New mines are needed to offset retirements, but a new commodity cycle in the 2030s can be avoided. Coal prices decline as only the most competitive mines survive, and trade volumes fall to give more insular national markets. Regions stand to gain or lose tens of billions of dollars per year from reducing import bills or export revenues. Understanding and preparing for these changes could ease the transition away from coal following 150 years of dominance. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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