Economic evaluation of sea-level rise adaptation strongly influenced by hydrodynamic feedbacks
| Autor: | Michelle A. Hummel, Katie K. Arkema, Robert J. Griffin, Anne D. Guerry |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Cost-Benefit Analysis 0208 environmental biotechnology Social Sciences adaptation 02 engineering and technology Sea Level Rise 01 natural sciences flooding Regional planning Economic impact analysis 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Shore geography Multidisciplinary geography.geographical_feature_category Flood myth business.industry Flooding (psychology) Environmental resource management Water storage externalities sea-level rise Floods 020801 environmental engineering Models Economic Bays Hydrodynamics Damages Environmental science San Francisco economic damages Estuaries business Levee Environmental Sciences |
| Zdroj: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
| ISSN: | 1091-6490 0027-8424 |
| Popis: | Significance As sea levels rise, coastal cities will rely on shoreline protection strategies such as levees and seawalls to mitigate flooding. Although these strategies provide local flood-reduction benefits, they can increase inundation along other shorelines within the same estuary or bay. Using hydrodynamic and economic models, we quantify previously unmeasured regional economic damages (up to $723 million per flood event) that result from the protection of individual shoreline segments in San Francisco Bay, CA. We also highlight and quantify opportunities to alleviate regional flood damage through strategic floodwater storage in low-lying areas. Integrating the findings into coordinated planning efforts that account for the regional impacts of local shoreline actions could provide opportunities to reduce shared risk in coastal regions globally. Coastal communities rely on levees and seawalls as critical protection against sea-level rise; in the United States alone, $300 billion in shoreline armoring costs are forecast by 2100. However, despite the local flood risk reduction benefits, these structures can exacerbate flooding and associated damages along other parts of the shoreline—particularly in coastal bays and estuaries, where nearly 500 million people globally are at risk from sea-level rise. The magnitude and spatial distribution of the economic impact of this dynamic, however, are poorly understood. Here we combine hydrodynamic and economic models to assess the extent of both local and regional flooding and damages expected from a range of shoreline protection and sea-level rise scenarios in San Francisco Bay, California. We find that protection of individual shoreline segments (5 to 75 km) can increase flooding in other areas by as much as 36 million m3 and damages by $723 million for a single flood event and in some cases can even cause regional flood damages that exceed the local damages prevented from protection. We also demonstrate that strategic flooding of certain shoreline segments, such as those with gradually sloping baylands and space for water storage, can help alleviate flooding and damages along other stretches of the coastline. By matching the scale of the economic assessment to the scale of the threat, we reveal the previously uncounted costs associated with uncoordinated adaptation actions and demonstrate that a regional planning perspective is essential for reducing shared risk and wisely spending adaptation resources in coastal bays. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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