ENSO Climate Patterns on Global Economic Conditions
| Autor: | Gilles Dufrénot, William Ginn, Marc Pourroy |
|---|---|
| Přispěvatelé: | Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques (AMSE), École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-École Centrale de Marseille (ECM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII), Centre d'analyse stratégique, LabCorp, Centre de recherche sur l'intégration économique et financière (CRIEF), Université de Poitiers, ANR-17-EURE-0020,AMSE (EUR),Aix-Marseille School of Economics(2017), ANR-11-IDEX-0001,Amidex,INITIATIVE D'EXCELLENCE AIX MARSEILLE UNIVERSITE(2011) |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2023 |
| Předmět: |
[QFIN]Quantitative Finance [q-fin]
Global Macroeconometric Modeling JEL: F - International Economics/F.F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance/F.F4.F44 - International Business Cycles Oil and Food Prices JEL: O - Economic Development Innovation Technological Change and Growth/O.O1 - Economic Development/O.O1.O13 - Agriculture • Natural Resources • Energy • Environment • Other Primary Products JEL: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q5 - Environmental Economics/Q.Q5.Q54 - Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming Weather JEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models • Multiple Variables/C.C3.C32 - Time-Series Models • Dynamic Quantile Regressions • Dynamic Treatment Effect Models • Diffusion Processes • State Space Models Economic Policy Uncertainty [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences |
| Popis: | We investigate the role of ENSO climate patterns on global economic conditions. The estimated model is based on a rich and novel monthly dataset for 20 economies, capturing 80.2% of global output (based on IMF data) over the period 1999:01 to 2022:03. The empirical evidence from an estimated global vector autoregres-sion with local projections (GFAVLP) model links an El Niño (EN) shock with higher output and inflation, corresponding with lower global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU). While a shock to the world oil and food price is inflationary, a food price shock leads to elevated GEPU, more so during a La Nina (LN) shock. A main finding is that an increase of the food price can be a source of global vulnerability. The findings indicate that the weather shock impact on global economic conditions is dependent on the climate state. Our result undermines existing studies connecting climate change and economic damage via statistical approach. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|