Modeling impacts of faster productivity growth to inform the CGIAR initiative on Crops to End Hunger
| Autor: | Shahnila Dunston, Gerald C. Nelson, Keith O. Fuglie, Timothy B. Sulser, Mark W. Rosegrant, Keith Wiebe, Dirk Willenbockel |
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| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
United States Agency for International Development
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Bananas 01 natural sciences Agricultural economics Food Supply Geographical Locations Medicine and Health Sciences Triticum 0303 health sciences education.field_of_study Multidisciplinary bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Agricultural and Resource Economics Eukaryota Agriculture Plants Investment (macroeconomics) Crop Production Models Economic Wheat language Medicine International development Research Article Crops Agricultural Asia Yield (finance) Science Population Developing country Crops Fruits 03 medical and health sciences Production (economics) Humans Grasses education Developing Countries 030304 developmental biology 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Nutrition Cassava business.industry Organisms Biology and Life Sciences Oryza language.human_language United States Diet SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Agricultural and Resource Economics Food People and Places Africa Food policy bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences SocArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences Shrubs business Crop Science Cereal Crops |
| Zdroj: | PLoS ONE PLoS ONE, Vol 16, Iss 4, p e0249994 (2021) |
| DOI: | 10.31235/osf.io/h2g6r |
| Popis: | In 2017–2018, a group of international development funding agencies launched the Crops to End Hunger initiative to modernize public plant breeding in lower-income countries. To inform that initiative, USAID asked the International Food Policy Research Institute and the United States Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service to estimate the impacts of faster productivity growth for 20 food crops on income and other indicators in 106 countries in developing regions in 2030. We first estimated the value of production in 2015 for each crop using data from FAO. We then used the IMPACT and GLOBE economic models to estimate changes in the value of production and changes in economy-wide income under scenarios of faster crop productivity growth, assuming that increased investment will raise annual rates of yield growth by 25% above baseline growth rates over the period 2015–2030. We found that faster productivity growth in rice, wheat and maize increased economy-wide income in the selected countries in 2030 by 59 billion USD, 27 billion USD and 21 billion USD respectively, followed by banana and yams with increases of 9 billion USD each. While these amounts represent small shares of total GDP, they are 2–15 times current public R&D spending on food crops in developing countries. Income increased most in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Faster productivity growth in rice and wheat reduced the population at risk of hunger by 11 million people and 6 million people respectively, followed by plantain and cassava with reductions of about 2 million people each. Changes in adequacy ratios were relatively large for carbohydrates (already in surplus) and relatively small for micronutrients. In general, we found that impacts of faster productivity growth vary widely across crops, regions and outcome indicators, highlighting the importance of identifying the potentially diverse objectives of different decision makers and recognizing possible tradeoffs between objectives. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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