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Dis Ticaret Haddi’nin Dis Ticaret Dengesine Etkisi: Turkiye’deki Endustriler Icin “S Egrisi Yaklasimi” nin Gecerliligi Oz Bu calismada, Turkiye’nin “Uluslararasi Standart Ticaret Siniflamasina (SITC Rev. 3, 1. duzeyde) gore 1 kodlu icki ve tutun, 2 kodlu akaryakit haric yenilmeyen hammaddeler, 3 kodlu mineral yakitlar, yaglar ve alkali urunleri, 4 kodlu hayvansal, bitkisel kati ve sivi yaglar, mumlar, 5 kodlu baska yerde belirtilmeyen kimya sanayi ve buna bagli sanayi urunleri, 6 kodlu baslica siniflara ayrilan islenmis mallar, 7 kodlu makinalar ve ulastirma araclari ile 8 kodlu cesitli mamul esya endustrileri icin “S Egrisi etkisi”nin gecerliligi 2002:01-2014:12 donemi aylik verilerle arastirilmistir. Capraz korelasyon analizleri 1, 2, 4, 5 ve 8 kodlu endustrilerinde S Egrisi etkisinin gecerli oldugunu gostermektedir. Anahtar Kelimeler: S Egrisi, Capraz Korelasyon Fonksiyonu, Portmanteau χ 2 Testi. JEL Siniflandirma Kodlari: C32, C58, F31, F41 The Effect of Terms of Foreign Trade on The Balance of Foreign Trade: The Validity of “S-Curve Approach” for The Industries in Turkey Abstract In this study, the validity of S Curve effect for the period of 2002:01-2014:12 is investigated in the following industries of Turkey, classified by the Standard International Trade Classification ( SITC Rev. 3, 1 level) ); section 1- beverages and tobacco; section 2- crude materials, inedible, except fuels; section 3- mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials; section 4- animal and vegetable oils, fats and waxes; section 5- chemicals and related products, n.e.s.; section 6: manufactured goods classified chiefly by material; section 7- machinery and transport equipment; section 8- miscellaneous manufactured articles. Cross correlation analyses indicate that S Curve effect is found in the sections 1, 2, 4, 5 and 8. Key Words: S-Curve, Cross Correlation Function, Portmanteau χ 2 Test. JEL Classification Codes: C32, C58, F31, F41 |
