Seasonal and annual fluctuations of deer populations estimated by a Bayesian state–space model
| Autor: | Masae Iwamoto Ishihara, Hikaru Nakagawa, Inoue Mizuki, Michimasa Yamasaki, Masaya Katsuki, Yuuki Okamoto, Atsushi Takayanagi, Masaru Sakai, Shigeru Fukumoto, Shota Sakaguchi, Keitaro Fukushima, Hiroki Itô, Daisuke Fujiki |
|---|---|
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
0106 biological sciences
Atmospheric Science 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences animal diseases Population Dynamics Forests 01 natural sciences Abundance (ecology) Snow Mammals education.field_of_study Multidisciplinary Ecology Eukaryota Ruminants Terrestrial Environments Vertebrates Medicine Seasons Nuisance Research Article Forest Ecology Death Rates Science Population Biology 010603 evolutionary biology Ecosystems Meteorology Population Metrics Forest ecology parasitic diseases Animals Ecosystem education 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Cervus Models Statistical Population Biology Deer Ecology and Environmental Sciences Organisms Biology and Life Sciences Plant community Bayes Theorem Evergreen biology.organism_classification Amniotes Earth Sciences |
| Zdroj: | PLoS ONE, Vol 15, Iss 6, p e0225872 (2020) PLoS ONE |
| DOI: | 10.1101/844688 |
| Popis: | Deer overabundance is a contributing factor in the degradation of plant communities and ecosystems worldwide. The management and conservation of the deer-affected ecosystems requires us to urgently grasp deer population trends and to identify the factors that affect them. In this study, we developed a Bayesian state–space model to estimate the population dynamics of sika deer (Cervus nippon) in a cool-temperate forest in Japan, where wolves (Canis lupus hodophilax) are extinct. The model was based on field data collected from block count surveys, road count surveys by vehicles, mortality surveys during the winter, and nuisance control for 12 years (2007–2018). We clarified the seasonal and annual fluctuation of the deer population. We found two peaks of deer abundance (2007 and 2010) over 12 years. In 2011 the estimated deer abundance decreased drastically and has remained at a low level then. The deer population increased from spring to autumn and decreased from autumn to winter in most years. The seasonal fluctuation we detected could reflect the seasonal migration pattern of deer and the population recruitment through fawn births in early summer. In our model, snowfall accumulation, which can be a lethal factor for deer, may have slightly affected their mortality during the winter. Although we could not detect a direct effect of snow on population dynamics, snowfall decrease due to global warming may decelerate the winter migration of deer; subsequently, deer staying on-site may intensively forage evergreen perennial plants during the winter season. The nuisance control affected population dynamics. Even in wildlife protection areas and national parks where hunting is regulated, nuisance control could be effective in buffering the effect of deer browsing on forest ecosystems. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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