Designing programs for eliminating canine rabies from islands: Bali, Indonesia as a case study
| Autor: | Gusti Ngurah Bagus, I. Putu Sumantra, Janice Girardi, Eric Brum, Sally Crafter, Ayu Madri Dewi, I Wayan Sukanadi, Pudjiatmoko, Anak Agung Gde Putra, Corlevin Kalalo, Darryn L. Knobel, Dewa N. Dharma, Luuk Schoonman, Sunny E. Townsend, Jonathan Dushoff, I Ketut Gunata, Katie Hampson, Pebi Purwo Suseno, I. Wayan Mardiana, Helen Scott–Orr, Elly F. Hiby, Sarah Cleaveland, Daniel T. Haydon, Mike Shand |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
| Rok vydání: | 2013 |
| Předmět: |
Veterinary medicine
Spatial Epidemiology lcsh:Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine Rabies Epidemiology lcsh:RC955-962 040301 veterinary sciences 030231 tropical medicine Basic Reproduction Number Library science Mass Vaccination Infectious Disease Epidemiology Veterinary Epidemiology Disease Mapping 0403 veterinary science 03 medical and health sciences Dogs 0302 clinical medicine Zoonoses Animals Medicine Dog Diseases Disease Eradication Biology Animal Management Population Density Models Statistical Population Biology Zoonotic Diseases business.industry lcsh:Public aspects of medicine Public Health Environmental and Occupational Health Homeland security lcsh:RA1-1270 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences Canine rabies 3. Good health Infectious Diseases Rabies Vaccines Veterinary Diseases Indonesia Veterinary Science Mass vaccination business Research Article |
| Zdroj: | PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 7, Iss 8, p e2372 (2013) PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| ISSN: | 1935-2727 |
| Popis: | Background Canine rabies is one of the most important and feared zoonotic diseases in the world. In some regions rabies elimination is being successfully coordinated, whereas in others rabies is endemic and continues to spread to uninfected areas. As epidemics emerge, both accepted and contentious control methods are used, as questions remain over the most effective strategy to eliminate rabies. The Indonesian island of Bali was rabies-free until 2008 when an epidemic in domestic dogs began, resulting in the deaths of over 100 people. Here we analyze data from the epidemic and compare the effectiveness of control methods at eliminating rabies. Methodology/Principal Findings Using data from Bali, we estimated the basic reproductive number, R 0, of rabies in dogs, to be ∼1·2, almost identical to that obtained in ten–fold less dense dog populations and suggesting rabies will not be effectively controlled by reducing dog density. We then developed a model to compare options for mass dog vaccination. Comprehensive high coverage was the single most important factor for achieving elimination, with omission of even small areas ( Author Summary Canine rabies continues to cause tens of thousands of horrific deaths worldwide, primarily in Asia and Africa. Momentum is building towards development of a global elimination strategy for canine rabies, but questions remain over how best to eliminate rabies epidemics. This paper uses data generated from the recent high-profile rabies outbreak in Bali, Indonesia to evaluate different control options. We find that, despite high dog densities, the spread of rabies on the island was remarkably similar to canine rabies spread elsewhere, suggesting that the practice of dog culling is an ineffective control strategy. We then simulate rabies transmission and spread across the island and compare the effectiveness of mass dog vaccination strategies in terms of how many lives are saved and how long it will take for elimination to be achieved. We find that the effectiveness of campaigns is not improved by being more reactive or synchronized but depends almost entirely upon reaching sufficient coverage (70%) across the population in successive campaigns. Even small ‘gaps’ in vaccination coverage can significantly impede the prospects of elimination. The outputs of this study provide the kind of evidence needed by rabies program coordinators to help design effective national control programmes, and to build the evidence-base to drive forward the development and implementation of effective global rabies policy. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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